America is exhibiting typical late stage empire corruption and perfidiousness. The pronouncements emanating from Washington cannot be believed. Every time statements are made they’re later revealed to have been either a market manipulation strategy, to further enrich American oligarchs, or cover for a planned attack. Trust is entirely gone.

Trump recently set an ultimatum – 48 hours to open the Straits of Hormuz or he would reduce Iran’s energy sector to rubble. Iran replied that this would result in retaliation amounting to the destruction of energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf countries, which have essentially joined the war on the American side, despite denying it. Before Trump’s deadline expired, he TACOed (ie Trump Always Chickens Out), saying that talks with Iran were productive and that he was giving them an additional five days. Israel then promptly began bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure, with American weapons and covert American support. Iran made it clear that there had never been any talks.

Trump’s wealthy friends made a killing on the resulting market movements in both directions.

Iran has now begun its response, and it won’t be pretty.

Israel is trying to generate maximum conflict between the Sunni Muslim Gulf states and Shia Muslim Iran, in an attempt to get them to destroy each other for Israel’s benefit. The sectarian conflict is reminiscent of the European strife between Catholics and Protestants several hundred years ago. Israel is seeking to depopulate the region of Muslims of all kinds, but lacks the capacity to do it by themselves, hence the need to foment internecine conflict. Israel has also bombed Britain’s Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the British base in Cyprus, and oil infrastructure in Oman, trying to blame Iran for each attack. These are false flag attempts to widen the war. Iran lacks missiles that could reach Diego Garcia, but the false flag attack has been used to convince Europeans that Iran has the long range capacity to attack them, with a view to generating public support for the war in Europe. Additional false flags events may well be planned for the US, where support for the war is very low.

Geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningsen was in Iran during the recent protests which were initially peaceful, but then infiltrated by foreign instigators of extreme violence (Mossad, CIA, and MI6). The idea was to prompt the Iranian population to overthrow their own government, but it backfired. The foreign interference was noted by the people, and the result of the violence was much greater unity in the country behind the government. Henningsen’s account of that time should bear much more weight than the propaganda issued by western states trying to paint an entirely false picture of Iran in order to demonise the country and generate support for war. The Trump regime is losing support at a rapid rate and is becoming desperate.

Trump has issued delusional conditions for the end of hostilities:

Israeli media have leaked the 14 points the Trump administration has sent to Iran to end the war. They are laughable. They are the following…

1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
5. The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency, and oversight inside Iran.
7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
8. Iran must cease the funding, direction, and arming of its regional proxies.
9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.

In return, Iran would benefit as follows:

12. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
13. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
14. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.

In public comments, Iranian officials have dismissed the idea that Trump is genuine about diplomacy and have described his comments as an effort to manipulate global oil prices, a view that was reaffirmed on Tuesday by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who the US is reportedly seeking to hold talks with that would be led by Vice President JD Vance.

America has created a new Libyan model. Nations like Iran will never sit with the United States again. But I’m not surprised. This was all predictable.

Needless to say, none of this will be happening. In response, Israel claimed that the conclusion of the conflict would be an internal military decision not to be dictated by Washington. In their view, regime change is insufficient. They want Iran to be completely destroyed, like Syria, so it can be balkanised and controlled by Greater Israel. This is the goal, but this is exceptionally unlikely.

Iran has now laid out its own conditions for the end of the conflict:

The six conditions outlined by the Iranian official represent a comprehensive restructuring of the conflict’s political and security framework.

First, Iran demands binding guarantees that war will not be repeated, signaling a rejection of temporary or symbolic ceasefire arrangements.

Second, Tehran calls for the closure of US military bases across the region, a demand that directly challenges the broader American military presence in West Asia.

Third, Iran insists that the aggressors pay compensation for damages inflicted during the war.

Fourth, it calls for an end to all ongoing wars across regional fronts, positioning the current confrontation within a wider regional context rather than an isolated conflict.

Fifth, Tehran seeks the establishment of a new legal regime governing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery over which Iran holds strategic influence.

Sixth, the Iranian demand extends into the media sphere, calling for the prosecution and extradition of individuals affiliated with what it describes as hostile media operations targeting Iran.

Taken together, these conditions go far beyond conventional ceasefire terms, reflecting an attempt to redefine not only the outcome of the current war but also the regional order that underpins it.

There is clearly no overlap between positions of the beligerents, meaning that this war is likely to continue for a prolonged period. Iran is vastly better positioned for a long war of attrition. All it has to do is not to lose, whereas the US/Israeli forces need an overwhelming victory. Considering that their air defence capability is virtually exhausted even before Iran begins to use its most advanced weaponry, and boots on the ground can only result in enormous casualties, such a victory is exceptionally unlikely.

When countries begin to behave in lockstep, as they did during covid, one needs to ask questions. Fuel rationing, moving on to lock downs, is an extremely likely scenario. This would, of course, fit the Agenda 2030 priorities, namely extreme localisation and very limited access to resources. However, imposition of a digital control grid of the kind the WEF has in mind seems too neat and tidy an outcome for the war that’s currently raging in the Middle East. It seems much more likely that the situation will get out of hand in ways which are difficult to predict, but potentially catastrophic for many regions with a high dependency on fuel and goods passing through the Straits of Hormuz. South-east Asia is one such region, and Oceania, which gets its fuel from south-east Asia is another.

Australia and New Zealand both have little fuel in storage, and significant distances to cover. Both countries have seen major housing bubbles, exponential increases in property taxes (rates), and a substantial rise in the overall cost of living. Many families are already living paycheck to paycheck, if they’re lucky enough to have a paycheck. Some are already living in the cars. A fuel crisis is the last thing the country needed, but one was predictable ever since the closure of New Zealand’s last refinery. Australia too has greatly limited its refinery capacity. Both countries now have a structural dependency on fuel imports, with New Zealand 100% dependent. Tankers are supposedly on their way, but they will go to the highest bidder, meaning they’re likely to head to where there are deeper pockets. Rationing is an inevitability, and price concerns may well give way to a lack of availability at any price.

NZ fuel supply directly threatened by Hormuz crisis – Wise Response

3 March 2026 – The Wise Response Society iswarning that the military conflict now disrupting the Strait of Hormuzposes a direct and immediate threat to New Zealand’s fuel supply, and iscalling on the government to be transparent with the public about theseverity of our exposure and to take concrete steps to prepare for whatmay be a prolonged disruption.

South Korea – New Zealand’s primary supplier – just instituted mandatory fuel rationing. They will not be exporting to New Zealand. Tankers headed this way may well accept higher offers from other locations.

Well, that’s IT for New Zealand

We have 34 days of diesel in the country – after that NOTHING

Listen to Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, seen here at a shareholders’ meeting. This is not normal, but then Palantir is not a normal company. It’s the most substantial part of the Silicon Valley take over of the US government. An entire posse of tech billionaires funded the second Trump administration and received pride of place at the inauguration. This was followed in the early days of the new regime by Elon Musk’s DOGE rampage through government departments, staffed by a small group of Musk acolytes barely out of their teens. The putative goal was to root out waste, fraud, and abuse, but this is not what happened. The result was a slash and burn campaign which saved virtually nothing, but succeeded in stealing virtually all of citizens private data. This critical information is now part of Palantir, and it can and will be used for high resolution surveillance and control of the population. This is the foundation of the digital gulag planned by the former Pay Pal Mafia who are now the new deep state.

This group has connections to the Jeffrey Epstein network, and is now in a position to replace Epstein in terms of providing Kompromat on anyone who needs to be controlled. The company is international, having embedded itself deep into the functions of multiple states. Palantir is now the industrial memory of the national security state. It’s fused with unreliable AI decision-making and, as a private entity, it is completely unaccountable. Surveillance is supposed to confir safety, but it actually creates a digital prison meant to form the foundation for the coming digital currency reset required by the elites due to their debt timebomb.

The AI decision process has already been rolled out with deadly effect in Gaza, where Palantir’s technology has been used to target specific people, even those with the slightest and most tangential connection to Hamas. And it didn’t just target the person on the AI hit list. The strikes were timed for when the individual was at home with their family, ensuring that whole families, and often their neighbours, were killed together. Often entire tower blocks were demolished with no warning, ultimately burying tens of thousands of people, most of whom were women and children, under rubble.

This technology has already been used to identify undocumented inhabitants for deportation in the US. Far from seeking out the worst of the worst for removal, financially-backed quotas have been set for individuals picked up, and criminals are much harder to locate than ordinary working people, many of whom had been productive members of society paying taxes for years. Families have been violently separated, and proof of citizenship too often not recognised for the sake of claiming a bounty, even if the person was later released. Racial profiling has been rampant. Ever-expanding detention facilities are filthy, food is unfit for consumption, no privacy is available, lights are kept on at all times, detainees sleep on the floor in overcrowded rooms, and necessary medical care is not provided. Most of the detainees are undocumented residents, but some are innocent tourists. In the future, these private for-profit facilities will be used to warehouse citizen dissidents, identified by Palantir’s AI. The US is no longer a state providing any guarantee of freedom, very much including freedom of speech. Under the current tech-oligarch-controlled regime, it is becoming a fascist hellscape, but so far the national nightmare has only just begun.

Donald Trump’s dementia is increasingly on display in posts to Truth Social which are departing further and further from reality. In his mind this was to be a short war to flatten a weak enemy, over within a few days. He considers it already won and is rapidly losing interest. Many in the leadership are dead, and he emphasises the destruction if the navy and airforce, but these factors are nowhere near as significant as he believes, and certainly not grounds for Iran to surrender in what is for them an existential fight.

Iran never really had a blue water navy, but it does have armed speedboats, submarines, manouverable underwater drones, and torpedos fired underwater from shore. Its airforce was was much less significant than its enormous arsenal of missiles and drones. It always had the capacity to close the critical Straits of Hormuz and keep them closed for as long as it wants to.

Trump is proposing two strategies to reopen the Straits, neither of which will work, and a third possibility not yet discussed. First he’s demanded that NATO countries send their ships to open the Straits, which a French General has compared to buying a ticket on the Titanic after it hit the iceberg. The allies declined, but agreed after Trump berated them as ‘cowards’, in his usual insulting manner. Perhaps he has some unknown form if leverage over them, likely financial. Secondly he proposes American boots on the ground. Thirdly, an attack inside Iran may be contemplated.

The Europeans do have much better minsweeper ships than the US, but there is as yet no evidence that the Straits have been mined, although they could be in the future. Iran doesn’t need to mine the Straits, since they can easily be controlled due to being in firing range from the shore. Any ships entering the Straits would be destroyed, and the allies know this. Trump is asking others to die for the sake of his misadventures, in which the allies did not start and were not involved. They weren’t even told it was going to happen. Trump is in the habit of making messes and leaving others to clean them up, but in this case there is no way for the allies to do so, and they know it.

Iran is proposing a toll system for passage through the Straits, using a different channel than previously – one closer to the shore in order to permit visual inspection. Tankers and other cargo ships would have to demonstrate that their contracts were denominated in yuan. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent scoffs at this, saying that he can control all the necessary bank accounts. Bessent, who is a habitual dissembler, cannot prevent this. His constant nervousness while making public statements is evidence that he’s knows what he says is not true. Friendly ships will be given permission to pass, but ships without such permission will be targeted.

Trump is sending some 5000 marines to the region so far. There are two possibilities that could be planned, both of which would be disastrous. He could be planning to land them on Karg Island, which is Iran’s manin export terminal in the Gulf. They would simply be killed, if they could even get there. By ship they would have to pass through the Straits, and by air their planes would be shot down. Alternatively, the plan may be to attempt a landing on the north shore of the Straits, with a view to controlling the shore and preventing Iran from targeting vessels. This would face the same obstacles in terms of being able to get them there alive, but the operation would also require vastly more men than have been sent. The coast is long (some 1900 miles), with artillery based in the mountains behind.

Controlling it would likely require not thousands of men, but hundreds of thousands, and the US cannot field a force that size, with or without the help of allies. They would need to institute a draft, which they’re likely planning, but odds are this would spark a civil war. Sailors on the Gerald R Ford aircraft carrier have already been sabotaging their own ship to avoid dying in a pointless war serving exactly no US interests. First they blocked the toilets and more recently set fire to the laundry room, burning over a hundred bunks. The Ford is now in Greece for repairs. Would draftees be any keener to fight and die?

The third possibility is that the US may be planning to attempt a boots on the ground attack at one of Iran’s nuclear enrichment sites, likely Isfahan, following comprehensive bombing. An evacuation order by the belligerents has gone out for the area, and for a considerable distance around it. They may believe that Iran’s enriched uranium is hidden there. Such an attack would also be very unlikely to succeed.

The American media has been an utter disgrace during this war. They’ve comprehensively failed to inform the public of the actual situation, chosing instead to spew regime-friendly propaganda for fear of being excluded from the White House press pool. They never mention that the US bombed (with a double tap strike no less) an elementary school and incinerated 180 children and their teachers. Trump blamed Iran although even the Pentagon has admitted the US was responsible. Considering the strike was in the initial phase of the attack, before Iran could possibly have responded, Trump’s position is ridiculous. The media instead condemns Iran retaliation for being attacked, in an act of pure propaganda. They are completely servile. Members of Trump’s cabinet, even those with a substantial anti-war background like DNI Tulsi Gabard, have also caved humiliatingly, destroying their own repuations for the sake of a Mad King who ignores the advice of his own miltary and intelligence services because he feels omnipotent.

It’s clear that this war began at the behest of Israel, and serves only the nightmare plans of the oppsychopathic Bibi Netanyahu, who’s been waiting forty years for an American President stupid enough, or blackmailable enough, to do his bidding. Israel has already committed an obvious genocide in Gaza, is violently dispossessing Palestinians in the West Bank, and is now flattening Lebanon. Israel intends to take all of Lebanon by force, esepcially the portion up to the Litani River, in order to control the water supply. It has now invaded in order to do so, but reckoned without a resurgent Hezbollah, which is now bombing Haifa and tackling Israeli soldiers in southern Lebanon. Netanyahu recently compared Jesus unfavourably to Ghengis Khan, which is unlikely to endear him to the American Christian zionists he depends on to support his regional wars.

Israel has already realised that the plan of regime change in Iran has failed. However, it was never only regime change that they had in mind. The goal was complete destruction of the country, and they are still holding on to that goal. This suggests that they plan to use nuclear weapons, which they have in abundance despite never admitting to it. The US might also resort to nuclear weapons in order to destroy hardened underground sites. Some of these sites are 500m metres below ground, so success would not be guaranteed. The use of nuclear weapons on a non-nuclear state would firmly cement the position of the US and Israel as pariah states, and the US as a rogue hegemon, lashing out in its death throes.

The BRICS countries will be the beneficiaries, despite the recent defection of India, which sided with Israeli due to Narendra Modi’s personal hatred of Muslims. India may now be rethinking its position, since the price it now pays for Russian oil to replace what it’s lost from the Gulf has now virtually doubled, and it’s lost its claim to leadership of the global south. The ‘I’ in BRICS may now refer to Iran rather than India.

Europe is desperately trying to purchase Russian arctic LNG, despite having said it would swear off supplies from Russia. Russia may decide not to sell it to them, since Europe has been insulting Russia for years, supporting NATOs war in Ukraine with money and weapons, and also attacking the tankers of Russia’s shadow fleet. This would leave Europe up a creek without a paddle.

The decision by Israel to attack Iran’s South Pars gas field, with American kmowledge and support, is a disaster of global proportions. South Pars, which serves the domestic Iranian population, is a field shared with Qatar, which has been supporting the war of aggression. In return, Iran bombed Qatar’s LNG production facility, that had cost $26billion only two years ago. Damzge is extimated at $20 billion. Repairs require specialised steel and will take an extimated five years. The global LNG market will bevery heavily impacted, especially since this may be only the beginning of energy infrastructure destruction. Qatar’s 20% of the global LNG market is now offline. Apparently, Trump’s son in law, Jared Kushner, is angry because much of his personal wealth is tied to Qatar. Trump the denied US American foreknowledge or responsibility, but this was immediately repudiated. Iran also retaliated by bombing Israel’s major refinery at Haifa, causing massive damage. Accountability for the coming disaster cannot be avoided forever.

The shit is about to hit the fan spectacularly, as energy and finance are extremely co-dependent, and finance has been over-extended for years to decades. The coming massive energy shock will reveal all the systemic fraud, and crush finance back to a grim reality. What’s happening is a liquidation event, deliberately caused with foreknowledge of what at least the inital effects would be, but insufficient understanding that events like this can get out of hand very quickly. What starts as attempt at controlled demand destruction meant to lead the world’s population into a digital control grid (ie an involuntary rationing system for resources about to become very scarce) can escalate unbelievably quickly into a wave of unprecedented physical destruction. Control is an illusion. The global system cannot be centrally controlled. Attempts to do so will fail, but at horrendous cost. The analysis posted above discusses this in detail.

We’re about to see an almighty bidding war for oil resources outside of the Straits of Hormuz. As that oil is still priced in dollars, that means a dollar liquidity squeeze. Assets will be sold to raise dollars, and good assets are much easier to sell than dodgy ones. This could turn into a bloodbath of asset sales at lower and lower prices, with margin calls aggravating the process considerably. This can unfold very quickly. Watch the film Margin Call if you need to understand how this takes on a life of its own. Finance is virtual, so the time in which it can change is very short. It then becomes a powerful driver for impacts all across the physical world. This is exactly what I’ve been predicting the endgame would look like for the last twenty years.

The US is a dying rogue hegemon. China has been the empire in the ascendancy, but much of its rise has been financed by bad debt, and the rush to build anything and everything has resulted in extremely poor constuction (ie tofu dreg in the local parlance), a massive real estate ponzi scheme, and over-production of just about everything in the absence of a sufficient domestic market. They’ve been following in Japan’s state-driven development and export model, but on steroids. The Japanese bubble resulted in (so far) over 25 years of relative economic stagnation, mitigated by the ability to export into a booming global market (even though that market was largely artificial, being propped up by by gambling and massive fraud). China is heading for the same fate, but without the same global market, since cascading system failure is about to destroy demand on a huge scale. In an attempt to save the day, President Xi has decided to grab the exorbitant privilege accorded to the holder of the global reserve currency, so China’s debts could be financed by the rest of the world as America’s have been for so long. It’s a very risky bet under current circumstances.

Global liquidity crunch is coming, leading to large scale deleveraging, which is deflationary The mountian of bad debt is massively under-collateralised. The powers that be are attempting to address this by tokenising all assets on a single centrally controlled ledger, in order to make illiquid assets liquid, thereby making them accessible to markets for instantaneous settlement. This is nothing but yet another attempt to kick the can down the road, and it’s destined to fail in an energy-constrained environment, given the tremendous energy costs of digital control. Even the neeeds of data centres are prioritised over people, as they inevitably will be, there won’t be the power (or the water) to run them, and replacing all the GPUs every three years is a non-starter.

Inflation and deflation are always and everywhere monetary phenomena. Price movements are a consequence of changes in the money supply relative to available good and services, complicated by factors such as global wage arbitrage or scarcity of essentials. Price movements typically follow as a lagging indicator, hence prices continue to rise for a while even after an inflationary impulse is spent. One might expect prices to fall in a deflation, and many prices will, with a time lag, but a shorter one than in the case of inflation, as deflation is driven by fear, and fear is a very powerful driver. Prices for disposable non-essentials are especially vulnerable, so selling off accumulated crap will not be an option for people to raise liquidity. People will be selling not what they want to sell, but what they can sell, which will be the good assets that they would rather have kept.

Prices for essentials like food and fuel are not going to fall, even in a deflation. Scarcity will make sure of that. The result will not be inflation, as price rises are not inflation but the result of it. It will be a crisis of affordability. Whatever the nominal prices, the prices in real terms will be very high compared to purchasing power, which will be falling off a cliff. This is what an economic seizure looks like, and it will lead directly into a global depression of unprecedented magnitude. The powers that be will be using energy scarcity and financial penury to herd people into the 15 minute cities they’ve been planning, and put everyone on UBI at a subsistence level. They want complete dependence on government, so that they can dictate terms of continued existence to their populations.

Diet, medications, living space, ability to associate with others, and permitted opinions are all meant to be controlled under this system, mediated through programmable digital currency. It will fail eventually, but perhaps not immediately, and it will wreak havoc in the meantime. For instance, expect widespread capital gains tax on unrealised gains. This has already begun. If your home has increased in value due to the housing bubble, as all of them have, you get a tax bill for the difference, similarly as if you’d received it as income. You would probably have to sell the asset to pay the tax bill. Combined with skyhigh property taxes and the cost of insurance, this would be an effective way to separate people from their assets, notably their homes, but also precious metals and other appreciating assets. Thisnis another driver towards consolidating the population in small enclaves. The rest of the land would belong to the Epstein class.

This is beginning with manufactured energy crisis. Passage through the Straits of Hormuz requires prior permission and payment in Chinese yuan. This will, over time, help China to claim reserve currency status. In the shorter term, China has substantial reserves, and so does Japan. Other south east Asian countries do not, and those countries are the source of fuel for Australia and New Zealand. Europe’s energy supply from both north and south has been cut off. The US would like to be the global supplier, at extortionate prices, but they don’t seem to realise that their fracking industry is coming to an end. The US is not energy self-sufficient and cannot supply the rest of the world. Europe is finished as a result. All western countries will suffer the most, due to high debt loads, high expectations, vassalisation to the US, and therefore status as beligerents towards oil suppliers. China and Russia will both benefit, with Russia in the best position in the world as it’s self-sufficient in energy and other resources, and is receiving high prices for its oil exports now.

Since little oil can leave the Gulf, storage is full, meaning that production must shut down. The absence of flow leads to gumming up the pipes, and this would take months to resolve, even if the Straits were opened tomorrow. Oil grabs are therefore guaranteed, through leverage, threats, piracy on the high seas or likely many other methods. Possession is 9/10ths of the law. Oil is already leaving fungibility behind, as prices for supplies no dependent on the Gulf diverge from those that are, but all oil lrices will rise, and availability will become increasingly patchy. Ordinary people can expect energy lockdowns far more severe and long-lasting than covid lockdowns.

The systemic fraud will be revealed and driven out if the financial sytem. Unfortunately in such crashes, the baby gets thrown out with the bathwater. First bad debt fails, then higher and higher quality debt as trust disappears. Higher and higher quality assets get sold off at firesale prices. This, from the Great Depression, is what that looks like:

Prior electrification can provide a temporary energy cushion, as it allows for coal to be used indirectly where oil is scarce, but electric infrastructure is complex, and socioeconomic complexity cannot be maintained in an energy constrained environment. We are losing the highest EROEI (energy returned over energy invested) energy sources, and those cannot be replaced by low EROEI energy sources. Coal will work, but so-called renewables will not, at least not for long. They are not renewable, since the components of the generating sets (concrete, rebar, rare earths etc) are not renewable. They also have a short lifespan and and require liquid fuel to be rebuilt at the end of that time. They typically have a very low EROEI, and are not dispatchable to the grid, meaning that they can never function to maintain grid operation (frequency control, voltage control, reactive power, blackstart etc etc). China has built out renewables on a huge scale, the benefit of that investement will be short term. It will help them to ride out the oil crisis for the time being, but not provide an energy future. In addition, their electric cars are very poor quality, with an unfortunate tendency to catch fire, incinerating the occupants because the electric doors don’t open in a thermal runaway situation. They can also blow themselves twenty feet into the air in a explosion.

The best energy investments now would be in modular thorium reactors, which are passively safe, meaning that they neither explode like Chernobyl, nor melt down like Fukushima. Being relatively small, they can be constructed much more quickly than large uranium reactors, but time is of the essence due to how quickly the crisis is unfolding.

People need to wake up right now and address coping strategies for an uncertain future, or the consequences of continued complacency will be dire.

Alex Krainer is an excellent analyst, but for a long time he was giving the Trump regime far too much credit, assuming that no one could be that stupid, so there must be some kind of multi-dimensional chess going on. Not anymore, hence this analysis is very much worth your time.

There never was a sophisticated plan, at least not by the Trump contingent, which is composed of incompetent grifters completely under the thumb of the Epstein class. The last administration was also incompetent and controlled, and was also led by an old man in severe mental decline, but it was not recklessly insane to the extent that this one is. Biden was old and tired, and his administration was being run by underlings. Trump is clearly completely divorced from reality. He’s functionally illiterate due to dyslexia, and he also refuses to listen to anyone who doesn’t have him over a barrel with kompromat or who hasn’t bribed him sufficiently. Being utterly ignorant of most things, while attempting to project cognitive omnipotence, is ridiculous, and becoming increasingly so as the disasters his policies are leading to, both domestically and internationally, are increasingly obvious. Wake up MAGA people, you have been betrayed. You were never his real base. His real base is the Epstein class.

Trump appears to be suffering from fronto-temporal dementia, which runs in his family. His physical health is also clearly failing. He is not in control, although he clearly has delusions of grandeur typical of the narcissist he is, and that characteristic is increasingly obvious due to the disinhibition caused by dementia. He’s being ‘kept in the dark and fed shit’ by powerful people with deep pockets and a specific agenda. They know exactly what buttons to press in order to manipulate him into doing what they want, and unlike him, they do have a plan. The implementation of that plan began with the horribly misnamed Big Beautiful Bill and continued with the Genius Act and the Clarity Act. Together these are a recipe for total digital control by the Epstein class, along with absolute ownership of all resources and all assets, and an abenda of deliberate depopulation. They no longer need Trump since their agenda is now law. Either he will shortly die of congestive heart failure, or he’ll be removed thanks to the dripfeed of extremely incriminating Epstein revelations, or he could be removed in a military coup, or he could be violently removed. One of these things is going to happen, because in his dotage he’s now an unnecessary liability.

The second half of the video discussion above is particularly on point. Now that Krainer is looking for the agenda behind Trump, rather than assuming he has one of his own (other than somehow being emperor of the world), his analysis is very valuable. The key is zionism, which is an ideology, not a religion, and a particularly plutocratic one at that. Judaism is being co-opted for the purpose, although zionism and Judaism are not at all the same, and many Jews vehemently oppose what’s being done in their name. When the IDF is beating orthodox Jews in the streets for protesting the war in Gaza, it’s obvious that a major divide exists. It’s important to realise that the majority of zionists are not Jewish. There are less than 16 million Jews, but there are more than twice as many Christian zionists, and many atheist zionists as well. Both the religious Jewish zionists and the Christian zionists share an endtimes theology, up to a point, after which their views diverge. Both are trying to set the conditions for the advent of a messiah, the Jewish zionists for the first time, while the Christian zionists seek the return of Jesus. What the Jewish zionists don’t understand is that the Christian zionists want the Middle East to burn in armageddon for the Rapture, and that Jews would have to covert or die at that time. Sith friends like that, who needs enemies?

Unfortunately, most of the non-zionist Jewish opppsition lives outside of Israel, while the Israeli Jews have been inculcated into a mass formation. They are told to believe they’re the eternal victims, but also inherently superior to everyone else. They’re taught that they’re the chosen people, that laws apply only to inferior others, and that holding everyone to the same standards is unfair to them as superior beings. They reject equality outright, which is why no treaty with their neighbours will ever be possible until the mass formation dissolves, which they all do over time. This toxic worldview is taught in schools, universities and in the army, which all young people are required to join. A whole nation’s young people have been comprehensively brainwashed into (mostly) societal cohesion, and have been weaponised against their neighbours. In the process a majority has lost their humanity. They seek to be the new Sparta, with rigid martial discipline and an assumed right to rule the world. This is aided to a very significant extent by the elements if the diaspora which have come to control critical levers of global power, notably banking. They are the core of the Epstein class. Epstein himself said he was an agent of the Rothschilds, who are almost certainly the richest family in the world, and they are zionists. They seek to subjugate the global population through a digital panopticon and associated control grid. They’re leading the globalist faction that is attempting to impose Agenda 2030.

To do this, they needed to co-opt military power, and they have done that through the US, where most if the Christian zionists are based. The US ambassador tomIsraelmis N ardent Christian zionist. They’ve bought Congress almost entirely, and now they’ve almost managed a takeover of the legacy media, through Larry Ellison’s Oracle. The grip is tightening. The Trump regime is entirely controlled by these people, primarily through Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff, who interface with the zionist billionaires of the Epstein class. This is a Master-Blaster situation, where a small coniving entity is directing the actions of a blundering fool.

This situation will not resolve quickly. Mass formations always sow the seeds of their own destruction, but first they commit atrocities. They already have, but they’re by no means finished. The range of potential atrocities is extremely large, given modern weaponry and an utterly ruthless take on using that capacity. The world is in for many years of conflict and many millions or even billions of deaths. The current just-in-time system rests on abudant energy and complex but fragile supply chains. Both if these are going away through deliberate destruction that has only just begun in earnest. When this is over, and it will end because its goals are delusional and unattainable, the world will never be the same. We will be comprehensively deindustrialised. A smaller population will once again be doing the physical labour that energy slaves have been performing for decades. The hydrocarbon age was always going to be a short interval of human history, and it was always going to end violently, since humans fight like cats in a sack when the pie is shrinking.

Our job is to maintain our common humanity, work together at a local level, help each other, and get our expectations in line with what reality can hope to deliver, which will be much less than we’re used to. We will lose a great deal of material prosperity and comfort, but we can rediscover human connection through mutual aid, and ultimately that’s what makes people happy.

Israel has been wanting to clear the region of Arabs for a very long time, because they aspire to Greater Israel, which would encompass all of Lebanon, all of Jordan, all of Syria, the Gulf states, and substantial fractions of Iraq, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia. The blue lines on the flag represent the Nile and the Euphrates, and Israeli soldiers wear a patch of Greater Israel on their uniforms.

They’ve finally found an American president whom they could misinform, bribe, blackmail, and control who would help them make it happen. Marco Rubio admited that the US started the war because otherwise Israel would have, then Iran would have retaliated, and the US would have taken damage or casualties. In other words, the US went to war at Israel’s behest.

The Gulf monarchies are all extremely vulnerable. Provoking Iran was one way to threaten their existence, because they allow the US to use bases on their soil, and their airspace, to carry out attacks, which obviously invites retaliation. Key Iranian leaders were assassinated, which was a major blunder since the Khamenei chose to be martyred, and is now a powerful unifying symbol for a country where martyrdom is a high honour. Objects of critical infrastructure were hit, like Iran’s desalination plant. If Iran, which is only about 3% dependent on desalination, were to retaliate in kind, the Gulf states, some of which are 100% dependent on desalination, would become uninhabitable immediately. That would be the fastest way to clear out the region, but Iran is unlikely to do this. As annoyed as it is that the Gulf vassal states are helping the US and Israel in the war, Iran has no desire to inflict a humanitarian catastrophy that would further Israel’s territorial goals.

Israel, on the other hand, has no qualms about inflicting mass civilian casualties. They’ve already done so on a mass scale in Gaza, the West Bank and in Lebanon. They see Arabs as subhuman – as Amalek – and see no innocent parties. Israeli citizens have said on camera that the children grow up to be Arabs, so they should be eliminated before they do. The nature of war has been taken back 500 years, to utter barbarism. Whole populations are being subjected to collective punishment and genocide. The US has become a rogue hegemon, as it throws away its reputation and its superpower status. Israel has bought virtually all of Congress, and now wields its influence to send other young people to their deaths in a war of aggression. It isn’t only the Arabs whom the Israelis look down upon. They also have contempt for the ‘goyim’ who fight their wars for them. Epstein made this clear in his emails.

The resignation of Joe Kent could be a turning point, and does seem to be inspiring a growing minority of soliders to refuse illegal orders. He was MAGA through and through, but left because he could not support an obvious war of aggression. Unfortunately his boss, Tulsi Gabard, lacks his integrity, and has revealed herself to be a fraud and a sellout. Many people in the regime have their eyes on political elevation in 2028, and will do or say anything to remain close to the centre of power. Very few have a shred of integrity, and most are incompetent and corrupt. Of course incompetence and corruption are nothing new in American politics, but this group takes it to the next level. None of them are likely to get the ultimate power that they seek.

The war has escalated to mutual destruction of energy infrastructure, with Iran’s South Pars gas field being attacked and Qatar’s American jet fuel storage site attacked in return. This could spread, and would amount to yet another way for Israel to destroy the Gulf the states, using Iran as the instrument.

The correlation between energy supply and economic growth is almost one, meaning that energy is THE driver of growth – the single most important factor, and indeed almost the only one that matters. Global energy supply is about to collapse, and not just by the 20% that used to transit the Gulf. Now both sides are destroying each other’s energy infrastructure.

Steve Jermy, a fomer naval officer and energy expert, discusses the plans being formulated to invade either Karg Island or the northern coast of the Straits of Hormuz. The odds of success are vanishingly small. The US chronically underestimates it’s enemies, as it regards itself as inherently superior. This is shear hubris.

This is from facebook, from a site called ‘I Fucking Love Australia’. The link won’t post here, but this is the content (language warning). This amounts to a massive escalation. With each side blowing up each other’s critical infrastructure, restoring global energy flows will likely never be possible. Energy supplies will probably be impacted permanently. Please pay attention. Your futures depend on it. You must try to become as independent of the system as you possibly can. The plans of the elites for total central control will fail, and tnat failure is being hastened by the day because it critically depends on energy. You will need to radically reduce expectations, try to get out from under any leverage the system has over you, pool resources sith family, friends, and neighbours, and hope you’re collectively independent enough to outlast the plans of the western elites. We will be needing to rebuild a functioning system from the bottom up.

“🚨 BREAKING: Iran has just ordered Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and the UAE to evacuate their energy facilities. The missiles are coming. They named the fucking targets on live television.

This is what 5D chess looks like when Donald Trump plays it. The guy walked up to the board, threw his queen straight into the middle, and got taken by a fucking pawn. And now he’s sitting there telling everyone he’s winning while the board is on fire and the table is collapsing.

Israel, with full US backing, bombed Iran’s South Pars gas field today. The largest gas field on Earth. 70% of Iran’s domestic gas supply. Shared with Qatar. All burning. And Iran’s response? Cool, we’re going to blow up every refinery from Riyadh to Doha. Here’s the list. You’ve got a few hours. Run.

Now let’s talk about oil. Because you’re being lied to.

The headlines say Brent crude is at $103, $108. That is not the real fucking price. That’s one benchmark. The actual aggregate global oil price, what people are really paying for crude right now, is sitting between $120 and $130 a barrel. That’s the number they don’t put on the front page because it would start a fucking panic.

Iranian officials have said openly they will push oil to $200. An Iranian economics professor said $300. Three weeks ago that sounded insane. Today it sounds like a fucking calendar reminder.

The IEA just confirmed this is the largest supply disruption in the history of the global oil market. The largest. Ever. Gulf production has been cut by 10 million barrels a day. The Strait of Hormuz is closed. A fifth of all the world’s oil used to flow through there. Used to.

And here’s what $200 oil means for you personally.

97% of everything you touch, eat, wear, and use involves crude oil. Your food. Your medicine. Your plastic. Your fertiliser. Your transport. Your heating. Even your tomatoes from the farmers market. Grown with petroleum fertiliser. Picked by blokes who drove there in trucks made from crude oil. Delivered on diesel. Wrapped in petroleum packaging. That little sticker on the tomato? Petroleum.

When oil doubles, everything doubles. When it triples, civilisation starts to wobble. This isn’t a recession. This is a fucking seizure.

You know what caused the Great Depression? Tariffs. Stock markets at all time highs. Reckless speculation. Sound familiar? We’ve got all of that. Plus an oil crisis that 1929 didn’t have. This is the Great Depression with a turbocharger bolted to it.

And the slow-motion part is what kills you. This is one of those disaster movies where you see the shockwave rolling outward in slow motion. Glass shattering. Faces changing from confusion to terror. Everything stretching out in this surreal, horrible, beautiful slow-motion moment. That’s right now. On every trading floor, every petrol station, every supermarket supply chain on Earth. The shockwave is moving. You can see it. And nobody can stop it.

Today alone, Israel ass@ssinated Iran’s intelligence minister. Third senior official in two days. Iran fired multi-warhead missiles and cluster munitions at Tel Aviv. Two dead. The Bushehr nuclear plant took a hit. Dubai Airport got hit. The Australian base in the UAE got hit. Expats are fleeing Dubai on $250,000 private jets and abandoning their dogs in the fucking street.

Iran has spent 25 years digging tunnels, building underground drone factories, hiding missile launchers in caves along the entire coastline. America is dropping 5,000 pound bunker busters and Iran is still firing hundreds of drones and missiles every single day. You’re not winning. You’re punching a hornets’ nest and bragging that the nest has a dent in it.

Meanwhile the Fed meets today and they’re completely fucked. Can’t cut rates because inflation is about to go nuclear. Can’t raise rates because the economy is already cracking. Gold is at $5,000 an ounce. American petrol prices have jumped 86 cents in 18 days. That’s not a spike. That’s a vertical fucking line.

And we’re only on Day 19.

This is what happens when 77 million people look at a convicted felon, an adjudicated r@pist, a twice-impeached insurrectionist who hid classified documents next to the shitter, and say yeah, give him the nuclear codes. What’s the worst that could happen?

This. This is the worst that could happen.

Donald Trump didn’t play 5D chess. He didn’t even play checkers. He walked into the room, knocked the board off the table, shit on the floor, and declared victory. And now 8 billion people who never got a vote are going to pay for it at the petrol pump, at the supermarket, in their heating bills, and in their fucking retirement savings.

The wheels of disaster grind slowly. The bombs make the news but the economics make the history books. $200 oil doesn’t kill you in a fireball. It kills you at the checkout.

Buckle. The fuck. Up.”

The petrodollar recycling scheme has been propping up the US economy for decades by assuring that all oil sold anywhere must be paid for in dollars that are then invested back into the US. This arrangement has secured the use of the US dollar as the global reserve currency, endowing it with exorbitant privilige at the expense of the rest of the world. The US can print dollars that other countries must have in order to buy oil, and commodities in general. The US has increasingly weaponised the dollar, which has led to pressure to dedollarise. Trump has repeatedly threatened other countries with economic destruction if they try to move away from the dollar. Tariffs are one way, but currency manipulation as they recently did to destroy the Iranian rial (and then bragged about it) would be another.

Without the exorbitant privilege, the US interest rates would rise on trillions of already unrepayable debt. The cost of interest already exceeds the trillion dollar (set to increase to 1.5 trillion) military budget. Interest is set by the market, not by the central bank, which must simply follow the market. US treasuries have long been considered top-tier collateral, but gold is now taking their place.

The petrodollar system is now ending. China has said that it already dominates the US in every way except financially, and that now it intends for the yuan to become the global reserve currency. This intention is now being reinforced, using oil transport as a weapon. The Straits of Hormuz are closed, affecting delivery of a large percentage of the global oil supply. It will remain under Iranian control, as they can defend it easily, having prepared for this scenario for about thirty years. Iran has said that ‘friendly ships’ may pass, but their oil cargo must be sold in yuan.

Iran also intends to drive the US out of the Gulf region entirely. All the US bases there have already been damaged or destroyed, including critical radar systems costing hundreds of millions of dollars that were taken out by cheap drones ( demonstrating the ineffectiveness if air defence). The US is now blind in this region. Iran has said it will begin to target US corporations in the region, and also Trump’s family assets. US embassies hosting major intelligence operations are also being targeted. There is no way to stop them from doing this. They haven’t yet used their most advanced weaponry, having used the older classes of missiles to overwhelm the existing poor air defence. Interceptors costing multimillions were fired two at a time, or more, to intercept drones costing $50K. A substantial fraction of all the interceptors that have ever been produced has been used up in Ukraine and the Gulf, and there is no surge capacity to produce more quickly.

Iran’s closure of fhe Straits of Hormuz is very likely to be joined by an effective closure by Ansar Allah (the Houthis) of the Bab-al-Mandab – the southern entrance to the Red Sea. This would render the Suez canal useless, and if sustained would mean the proposed construction of the Ben Gurion canal through Gaza would be pointless. The US failed to prevent the closure if the Bab-al-Mandab when it was previously closed in response to the Gaza genocide, despite sending carrier strike groups. The US simply declared victory and left, as is their pattern. The impact on global trade as a whole of the closure of both the Persian Gulf and the Red Sea would be incalculable.

Iran’s military assets are highly dispersed, and very well dug in in a mountainous region. They cannot realistically be taken out. There are multiple underground missile cities, some 500m below ground. The command structure is decentralised, and Iran has a ‘dead hand’ system like that in Russia, meaning that missiles can continue to be fired even if the leadership has been wiped out. Iran has mass produced inflatable replicas of military hardware, and drawn images of aircraft on runways. These are what the US had been bombing, while the critical infrastructure is not exposed. Launchers are invisible under the desert sand, with their crews safe underground. Iran is extremely well prepared, despite soending less than one percent of the US defence budget. The population is more dispersed and less urbanised than most, so even trying to nuke them into submission would not work. These are people who regard martyrdom as a great honor, and who don’t run when their street protests are bombed.

This is what Iran has to say:

The American regime has absolutely failed to understand the situation it has thrust itself into, or the scale of its vulnerabilities. The failure encompasses several past presidencies, but the current one is by far the most ignorant and hubristic, which is a fatal combination. Trump has no understanding of geopolitics, only mafia tactics of bribery, extortion, and threats, learned from his extensive New York mafia connections over decades (see testimony from Sammy ‘The Bull’ Gravano at his trial), and from corrupt mob lawyer Roy Cohn. He makes ‘deals’, but repudiates them a week later. His deals are ‘negotiated’ by two unqualified real eatate developers who are also ardent zionists, so they are uninformed, out of their depth, utterly biased, and set to benefit personally from the conflict (see Kushner’s plans for turning Gaza into a resort for the super-rich) .

Deals are ephemeral. They can be changed on a whim, and Trump is prone to changing his mind multiple times a day. Geopolitics requires binding treaties, painstakingly negotiated by well-informed serious people. Trump’s entire cabinet was chosen on the basis of personal loyalty to him, with a side emphasis on appearance (see Trump’s frequent comments on ‘central casting’) and moral ‘flexibility’. Some of them were chosen to destroy the departments they lead (see Lynda McMahon at the department of education). Most others are both incompetent and corrupt. Pete Hegseth, his Secretary of Defence (now secretary of War), is one of the worst. The man is covered in crusader tattoos and is emersed in end times theology, where the Middle East must go up in flames in order to secure the return of Jesus and the Rapture. No rational thought can break through the religious conviction. To call this a disaster in the making would the understatement of the century, if not considerably longer.