Welcome

Welcome to Applied Systems Thinking. I’m going to be posting here from now on, since all the controlled platforms have been getting worse and worse, and participation there is being strongly surveilled for reasons that are incompatible with personal freedom. I’ll link to facebook, at least for now, but it would be better to come here directly. Avoid the surveillance state. I’ll be covering a range of topics, posting mostly video discussions sith various experts in their fields and providing commentary as to why their information matters. Many fields need to be integrated in order to create the big picture.

There’s also a forum here, so ideas can be discussed. A link to Buy Me a Coffee will be installed, so if you want to help me to keep going, that would help immensely. I will be doing this as a job. Crisis is upon us globally. It will be my job to keep people informed as to how it’s playing out, what are the traps to avoid, which places are doing better or worse, and what you can do about it all. I’ll be integrating geopolitics, finance, energy, health, psychology, resource availability (especially food), and the plans of the elites to corner the market on everything that matters.

A new world order, and Gaza and Iran are only the beginning

Chris Hedges is absolutely right, and this speech is a tour de force. He discusses the return of overt psychopathy in leadership, where rules exist only for the weak, and the strong take whatever they want in whatever way they want. He calls what’s begun in Gaza and Iran as “a vast worldwide Malthusian correction geared for preparing the world for the winners of globalisation minus the inconvenient noise of the losers”. Ethnocentricism and eugenics are on the rise, with a view to clearing away “human contaminants” through the use of indiscriminant lethal force if necessary. Israel is the prime example of this mentality at the moment, but the US is set to follow suit under the present regime which is increasingly white supremacist. Under such a system, all complexity and nuance are lost, values such as compassion and empathy are pathologised and despised, and brutality is prized.

When Israel says “never again”, they’ve made it clear that never again refers only to Jewish people, and although they don’t say so, neither liberal-minded Jews nor the ultra-orthodox would likely qualify, as neither generally support the fascist apartheid state.

Hedges mentions Rabbi Meir Kahane, whose malign influence has seen a rapid resurgence in Israel. He regarded violence as a Jewish virtue, and considered that ‘subhumans’ were the embodiment of evil and must be eliminated as a condition for the arrival of the Messiah. This train of thought had been suppressed for some time, but is now back in full force. For more on the views of the man, this excellent essay (below) by Sarah Kendzior paints the full picture.

Journalist Katie Halper, who is Jewish herself, also calls out the growing fascism in Israel.

Australia and New Zealand at the end of a breaking supply chain

Australia and New Zealand have both ceded any semblance of energy sovereignty in major way, notably in the closure of refineries, but also in the shuttering of productive wells on the spurious grounds of a non-existent climate emergency. Both are now highly dependent on imports, with New Zealand’s dependency at 100%, and both are about to discover the vulnerability inherent in such dependency. New Zealand gets its liauid fuels from refineries in South Korea, Malaysia and Singapore, but they get the raw material through the Straits of Hormuz. None of these countries hold substantial reserves themselves, making exports of what remains very unlikely. Some oil is now passing through the Straits, but only on a case by case basis, and only where the ship is not owned by a party to the war on Iran, only if the cargo is paid for in Chinese yuan, and only if a significant toll is paid. Asian nations will likely be forced to comply, which would be difficult for countries which have ceded much or all of their sovereignty to the American empire, such as South Korea and Japan. Oceania can expect shortages for a long time.

At the moment, fuel in New Zealand is being rationed by price, but soon it will be rationed by quantity, and by intended use under. Traffic light system reminiscent of the covid era. This is not a coincidence, as the pointless and destructive covid lockdowns were a practice run for the imposition of the planned digital control grid. Government will decide what uses of fuel merit access, with emergency services having priority of course. Leisure travel of all kinds would be a thing of the past if the fuel scarcity continues, which seems extremely likely, and freedom of association would go with it.

Unfortunately, use for farming may not receive the priority it deserves, and farmers are likely to be told to restrict their use of machinery. This would amount to a continuation of the ongoing war on farming, particularly animal husbandry. The climate zealots have wanted to eliminate animal products from the food chain in favour of nutritionally deficient veganism for a long time. They may make an exception for Klaus Schwab’s insect products however, and Bill Gates’ inedible and extremely unhealthy fake meat may also be allowed. The World Economic Forum, which dictates policy to our national managers, intends to separate people from the land in order to facilitate surveillance and micro-management of the population in 15 minute cities. Curtailing access to fuel would be a powerful tool to achieve this, which suggests that fuel scarcity may continue beyond the point where it would be necessary.

It would be a very good idea for people to work out carpooling arrangements, and to make sure they have a workable bicycle. Public transport may be available in cities, but service may be reduced. Air travel is likely to disappear entirely, as the WEF has been planning to phase it out for a long time. A lot more thought will have to go into any plans for travel, and any other uses for liquid fuel.

The coming central control through finance, energy, and food

The war is providing cover for the coming financial crisis, where the inverted debt pyramid, collateralised by a woefully small quantity of real assets, is very likely to collapse. This would trigger the Great Taking, and deflationary crash with asset confiscation by owners of the derivatives contracts, who’ve engineered the legal system to grant them ownership in the event of the bankruptcy of clearinghouses. The global elites are attempting to arrange for total control during the contraction, and they plan to weaponise resource access to do it.

The energy aspect is already manifesting, and potentially creating acute crises in many countries in the short term. A fertiliser crunch combined with fuel rationing is going to limit food production this years as well, as a large percentage of the fertiliser supply also travels through the Straits of Hormuz. Together these impacts will create desperate people, and will destabilise the bloated financial system. Massive demand destruction is coming, not because goods are not wanted, but because demand isn’t what you want, but what you can access and pay for. In a world of shortages, high prices for essentials, and sharply curtailed purchasing power, demand destruction is inevitable.

It’s necessary to point out that higher prices are not themselves inflation, but the result of inflation, which is a monetary phenomenon. High prices result from previous money printing combined with the coming shortages of essentials, which will likely be rationed by price, although rationing by quantity is also a possibility if the digital control grid is successfully installed. It remains to be seen if this is possible given the level of potential chaos in the short term. Even if prices fall over time, purchasing power is likely to fall much more quickly than price, meaning that affordability would be significantly worse even at lower prices. Affordability is what matters, because that represents prices in real terms.

Very few people currently understand the likely extent of the coming food crisis. Farmers cannot afford the diesel or the fertiliser, and may not even be able to get fertiliser at any price. The narrow planting window in the northern hemsphere is now, but many are simply not planting. This will lead to empty shelves. The powers that be may well be intending to use the acute shortages if food and fuel as leverage to force the population into digital ID, which is the gateway to the digital prison. This must be resisted if at all possible. If enough people resist, it won’t be possible to impose that digital slavery system.

Epic wartime corruption in the service of renewed imperial colonialism

American pronouncements about the war are all about market manipulation in order to facilitate insider trading on a massive scale. The Epstein class is profiting to the tune of hundreds of millions of dollars, and there’s zero accountability for widespread criminality. Nothing the regime says is credible.

Colonel Macgregor’s analysis is always worth your time. The man is a paragon of integrity. His description of this conflict as being the old means of war versus modern assymmetric war based on missiles, drones, cyberwarfare etc is accurate. So are the criticality of logistics, and the need for a sound plan grounded in a good understanding of the opponent and the situation, both of which the US regime appears not to understand. All of this is evident in the Ukrainian war, and the lesson is about to repeated in the Gulf.

The war over the Straits of Hormuz is about to amount to a repeat of the battle of Gallipoli from WW1. It could easily become a meatgrinder and an utter strategic disaster. Trump, the chancer, thought the US could win easily in a matter of days, and since he’s continually upped the rhetoric and the risk in the face of failure. A ground offensive would be the culmination of this course of action – an example of the Gambler’s Fallacy.

Trump is now bragging about expanding US territory into Greenland, Panama, Canada, Venezuela, Cuba, and much if the rest of the western hemisphere, under the so-called ‘Donroe Doctrine’. This is pure imperial colonialism. International law no longer exists, because the US empire prefers the law of the jungle, where might makes right and the empire can take anything they want from anyone unable to defend it. The current operation in Ecuador, set to spread to the rest if Latin America is called ‘Operation Total Extermination’. Brazil is set to be a target if particular interest since Brazil jailed Trump’s equally corrupt friend, Jair Bolsonaro, for attempting a coup. Trump’s Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, has recently been praising the European colonialist era and indicating that the American regime intends to emulate it rather than manage the decline of the West. Unfortunately for the US, that decline is irreversible. Empires rise and fall, and regaining ‘glory days’ is not an option.

The US is currently engaged in a grotesque episode of collective punishment against Cuba, which Trump claims he will have the ‘honour’ of taking soon. He says he will then be able to do whatever he wants with it. The island has been blockaded to the point where the entire electrical grid has collpased and society can no longer function. All the patients in the ICU in Havana have died due to the power cuts. The complete disregard for human life is sickening. Power and profit are the only motivating factors for the imperial regime.

This is a giant step backwards from the point of view of global stability, and it will result in major increases in military spending by any party that can afford it, along with a high likelihood of nuclear proliferation. Non-western populations are referred to as barbarians, just as European colonialists did for centuries. This can only lead to crashing trust, neo-mercantilism, piracy, and the collapse of the supply chains of the highly integrated global economy. Everyone suffers when trust is destroyed, but those who prepetrate it think they’re above consequences. Unfortunately for them, and everyone else, it won’t work out that way.

A warning as to what the worst case energy scenario might look like

It might not get this bad, but the possibility clearly exists. Hope for the best, but prepare for the worst if you can. You need to be as independent of centralised life support systems and government as you pssibly can be, because any form of dependence can be weaponised against you in order to get you under control. If you have even a small cushion of the essentials, the odds of you seeing your discount rate skyrocket will bemuch reduced. The discountrate is the extent to which you value the present compared to the future. If you have no resources, all that will matter to you is where your next meal comes from. The future will not exist, which means you would be stuck in state of permanent crisis management under duress, and in such a state people do not think clearly. People in this state tend to look like deer in the headlights, or like headless chickens running around and wrecking things. A cushion if essentials prepared in advance allows you to keep your discount rate under control, so you’re better able to keep a cool head and a constructive mindset under pressure. That can make you part of the solution rather than part of the problem, but it requires action in advance. Your time to act is right now.

Intentional food insecurity as leverage for a digital reset

Food security rests on many critical supports. The most obvious ones are energy, water, and fertile soil, but while those factors allow food to be produced, much more is required for distribution. Much of the network is now digital, and progress in that direction is accelerating, likely with increasing incorporation of AI. Unfortunately this introduces new and extensive vulnerabilities in a crisis. Hacking and cyber attacks are very real threats, as an American omoany recently discovered (discussed in the video above). They weren’t held for ransom, instead they were digitally deleted completely, and this attack was described as merely a warning of capability. Much larger and more critical entities could be subjected to the same kind of attack, and that could paralyse the entire food distribution network.

The powers that be are trying to create a digital control grid for the dual purposes of imposing an escape-proof rationing system for scarce resources and engineering a full-blown surveillance and control state to essentially enslave humanity in service of the Epstein class. They need leverage in order to force people to accept such a system, which would necessarily begin with digital ID. Limiting access to the essentials of existence, and allowing access only on acceptance of digital personhood would be the most effective way to onboard people quickly, as it would be very difficult for anyone with any kind of dependency on centralised life support systems to resist.

The rationing aspect is understandable. Limits to growth (energy, fresh water, arable land, soil fertility, carrying capacity etc) are non-negotiable, but people will not voluntarily limit consumption, so the powers that be have decided to force the issue. Of course they don’t intend for such limitations to apply to themselves, which undermines the rationale and renders the digital control system profoundly unacceptable to the rest of humanity. It would amount to a plutocracy, with the super-wealthy Epstein class ruling over a gigantic proletariate living at subsistence level.

The even darker side of this initiative is that of population control. Under such a system, only those with some kind of value to the elites would be worth preserving, while the rest would be comsidered ‘useles eaters’. A smaller population would also be more easily subjected to digital control. The obvious way forward for the elites would be to unleash all four horsemen of the apocalypse (so to speak) on the population. We’ve already been subjected to biowarfare with covid and the toxic shots that followed, which have now killed millions worldwide and permanently disabled far more. Covid was also a trial run for population compliance with severe control measures. Now comes war, with the the effect of severely limiting the availability of energy and other resources, combined with digital attacks on the systems required for distribution of remaining resources. It’s also very likely that ‘surplus population’ will be treated as cannon fodder for resource wars. A combination of famine, disease, and war, is exactly what our psychopathic elites have in mind. You might want to read Ayn Rand’s book ‘Atlas Shrugged’ for a fictional look at wealthy members of society shrugging off the rest as a burden.

False flag attempts to set the Sunni against the Shia

America is exhibiting typical late stage empire corruption and perfidiousness. The pronouncements emanating from Washington cannot be believed. Every time statements are made they’re later revealed to have been either a market manipulation strategy, to further enrich American oligarchs, or cover for a planned attack. Trust is entirely gone.

Trump recently set an ultimatum – 48 hours to open the Straits of Hormuz or he would reduce Iran’s energy sector to rubble. Iran replied that this would result in retaliation amounting to the destruction of energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf countries, which have essentially joined the war on the American side, despite denying it. Before Trump’s deadline expired, he TACOed (ie Trump Always Chickens Out), saying that talks with Iran were productive and that he was giving them an additional five days. Israel then promptly began bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure, with American weapons and covert American support. Iran made it clear that there had never been any talks.

Trump’s wealthy friends made a killing on the resulting market movements in both directions.

Iran has now begun its response, and it won’t be pretty.

Israel is trying to generate maximum conflict between the Sunni Muslim Gulf states and Shia Muslim Iran, in an attempt to get them to destroy each other for Israel’s benefit. The sectarian conflict is reminiscent of the European strife between Catholics and Protestants several hundred years ago. Israel is seeking to depopulate the region of Muslims of all kinds, but lacks the capacity to do it by themselves, hence the need to foment internecine conflict. Israel has also bombed Britain’s Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the British base in Cyprus, and oil infrastructure in Oman, trying to blame Iran for each attack. These are false flag attempts to widen the war. Iran lacks missiles that could reach Diego Garcia, but the false flag attack has been used to convince Europeans that Iran has the long range capacity to attack them, with a view to generating public support for the war in Europe. Additional false flags events may well be planned for the US, where support for the war is very low.

Geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningsen was in Iran during the recent protests which were initially peaceful, but then infiltrated by foreign instigators of extreme violence (Mossad, CIA, and MI6). The idea was to prompt the Iranian population to overthrow their own government, but it backfired. The foreign interference was noted by the people, and the result of the violence was much greater unity in the country behind the government. Henningsen’s account of that time should bear much more weight than the propaganda issued by western states trying to paint an entirely false picture of Iran in order to demonise the country and generate support for war. The Trump regime is losing support at a rapid rate and is becoming desperate.

Trump has issued delusional conditions for the end of hostilities:

Israeli media have leaked the 14 points the Trump administration has sent to Iran to end the war. They are laughable. They are the following…

  1. Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
  2. Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
  3. There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
  4. Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
  5. The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
  6. The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency, and oversight inside Iran.
  7. Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
  8. Iran must cease the funding, direction, and arming of its regional proxies.
  9. The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
  10. Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
  11. Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.

In return, Iran would benefit as follows:

  1. Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
  2. The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
  3. The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.

In public comments, Iranian officials have dismissed the idea that Trump is genuine about diplomacy and have described his comments as an effort to manipulate global oil prices, a view that was reaffirmed on Tuesday by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who the US is reportedly seeking to hold talks with that would be led by Vice President JD Vance.

America has created a new Libyan model. Nations like Iran will never sit with the United States again. But I’m not surprised. This was all predictable.

Needless to say, none of this will be happening. In response, Israel claimed that the conclusion of the conflict would be an internal military decision not to be dictated by Washington. In their view, regime change is insufficient. They want Iran to be completely destroyed, like Syria, so it can be balkanised and controlled by Greater Israel. This is the goal, but this is exceptionally unlikely.

Iran has now laid out its own conditions for the end of the conflict:

The six conditions outlined by the Iranian official represent a comprehensive restructuring of the conflict’s political and security framework.

First, Iran demands binding guarantees that war will not be repeated, signaling a rejection of temporary or symbolic ceasefire arrangements.

Second, Tehran calls for the closure of US military bases across the region, a demand that directly challenges the broader American military presence in West Asia.

Third, Iran insists that the aggressors pay compensation for damages inflicted during the war.

Fourth, it calls for an end to all ongoing wars across regional fronts, positioning the current confrontation within a wider regional context rather than an isolated conflict.

Fifth, Tehran seeks the establishment of a new legal regime governing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery over which Iran holds strategic influence.

Sixth, the Iranian demand extends into the media sphere, calling for the prosecution and extradition of individuals affiliated with what it describes as hostile media operations targeting Iran.

Taken together, these conditions go far beyond conventional ceasefire terms, reflecting an attempt to redefine not only the outcome of the current war but also the regional order that underpins it.

There is clearly no overlap between positions of the beligerents, meaning that this war is likely to continue for a prolonged period. Iran is vastly better positioned for a long war of attrition. All it has to do is not to lose, whereas the US/Israeli forces need an overwhelming victory. Considering that their air defence capability is virtually exhausted even before Iran begins to use its most advanced weaponry, and boots on the ground can only result in enormous casualties, such a victory is exceptionally unlikely.

Two weeks to ‘flatten the fuel curve’

When countries begin to behave in lockstep, as they did during covid, one needs to ask questions. Fuel rationing, moving on to lock downs, is an extremely likely scenario. This would, of course, fit the Agenda 2030 priorities, namely extreme localisation and very limited access to resources. However, imposition of a digital control grid of the kind the WEF has in mind seems too neat and tidy an outcome for the war that’s currently raging in the Middle East. It seems much more likely that the situation will get out of hand in ways which are difficult to predict, but potentially catastrophic for many regions with a high dependency on fuel and goods passing through the Straits of Hormuz. South-east Asia is one such region, and Oceania, which gets its fuel from south-east Asia is another.

Australia and New Zealand both have little fuel in storage, and significant distances to cover. Both countries have seen major housing bubbles, exponential increases in property taxes (rates), and a substantial rise in the overall cost of living. Many families are already living paycheck to paycheck, if they’re lucky enough to have a paycheck. Some are already living in the cars. A fuel crisis is the last thing the country needed, but one was predictable ever since the closure of New Zealand’s last refinery. Australia too has greatly limited its refinery capacity. Both countries now have a structural dependency on fuel imports, with New Zealand 100% dependent. Tankers are supposedly on their way, but they will go to the highest bidder, meaning they’re likely to head to where there are deeper pockets. Rationing is an inevitability, and price concerns may well give way to a lack of availability at any price.

South Korea – New Zealand’s primary supplier – just instituted mandatory fuel rationing. They will not be exporting to New Zealand. Tankers headed this way may well accept higher offers from other locations.

The Palantir panopticon

Listen to Alex Karp, CEO of Palantir, seen here at a shareholders’ meeting. This is not normal, but then Palantir is not a normal company. It’s the most substantial part of the Silicon Valley take over of the US government. An entire posse of tech billionaires funded the second Trump administration and received pride of place at the inauguration. This was followed in the early days of the new regime by Elon Musk’s DOGE rampage through government departments, staffed by a small group of Musk acolytes barely out of their teens. The putative goal was to root out waste, fraud, and abuse, but this is not what happened. The result was a slash and burn campaign which saved virtually nothing, but succeeded in stealing virtually all of citizens private data. This critical information is now part of Palantir, and it can and will be used for high resolution surveillance and control of the population. This is the foundation of the digital gulag planned by the former Pay Pal Mafia who are now the new deep state.

This group has connections to the Jeffrey Epstein network, and is now in a position to replace Epstein in terms of providing Kompromat on anyone who needs to be controlled. The company is international, having embedded itself deep into the functions of multiple states. Palantir is now the industrial memory of the national security state. It’s fused with unreliable AI decision-making and, as a private entity, it is completely unaccountable. Surveillance is supposed to confir safety, but it actually creates a digital prison meant to form the foundation for the coming digital currency reset required by the elites due to their debt timebomb.

The AI decision process has already been rolled out with deadly effect in Gaza, where Palantir’s technology has been used to target specific people, even those with the slightest and most tangential connection to Hamas. And it didn’t just target the person on the AI hit list. The strikes were timed for when the individual was at home with their family, ensuring that whole families, and often their neighbours, were killed together. Often entire tower blocks were demolished with no warning, ultimately burying tens of thousands of people, most of whom were women and children, under rubble.

This technology has already been used to identify undocumented inhabitants for deportation in the US. Far from seeking out the worst of the worst for removal, financially-backed quotas have been set for individuals picked up, and criminals are much harder to locate than ordinary working people, many of whom had been productive members of society paying taxes for years. Families have been violently separated, and proof of citizenship too often not recognised for the sake of claiming a bounty, even if the person was later released. Racial profiling has been rampant. Ever-expanding detention facilities are filthy, food is unfit for consumption, no privacy is available, lights are kept on at all times, detainees sleep on the floor in overcrowded rooms, and necessary medical care is not provided. Most of the detainees are undocumented residents, but some are innocent tourists. In the future, these private for-profit facilities will be used to warehouse citizen dissidents, identified by Palantir’s AI. The US is no longer a state providing any guarantee of freedom, very much including freedom of speech. Under the current tech-oligarch-controlled regime, it is becoming a fascist hellscape, but so far the national nightmare has only just begun.

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