The US violated every term of the MOU from day one, while Iran continued to follow the terms until now. They have now declared it null and void, and have said there will be no further discussions with an agreement-incapable US run by a profoundly ignorant and demented mad man. Apart from failing to rein in Israel’s barbarism in Lebanon, and setting up a conflicting MOU with the Lebanese puppet regime, the US was also encouraging ships to bypass Iran’s control over Hormuz by skirting the coast of Oman. Iran warned shipping that to do so would mean being fired upon, which is exactly what happened, and what they had a right to do under the MOU, as it granted them control over the strait. The US retaliated by striking Iranian civilian infrastructure and land-based connection points with Iran’s neighbours. Iran responded by bombing American bases in the region. Israel told Trump the Iranians were going to assassinate him, and he foolishly believed them as he always does, even though any assassination would almost certainly be an Israeli false flag. Another possibility is that Trump’s health is now so poor that a natural death could be spun as assassination to produce a causus belli. Trump is now completely paranoid, and is back to threatening to anihilate Iran. There is no obvious end to where the escalation ladder could lead.

The US cannot reach Iran’s strategic assets, as they’re all deep underground. In contrast, Iran can very easily and cheaply inflict considerable damage on American assets and on those of the Gulf countries which have made themselves co-beligerents. Those assets are above ground, and essentially undefended, due to the abject failure of American air defence (as discussed here in a post two days ago). Iran has a massive geographical advantage, which they have improved over many years to create what is now an impregnable defensive fortress. No amount of bombing will prevent Iran from continuing to control Hormuz, and now Ansar Allah (the Houthis) are planning to close the Bab-al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, due to an attack on their airport at Sanaa. This appeared to be a Saudi attack, but could well be a false flag, since the attack was not in Saudi interests. Closing access to the Red Sea would very significantly compound the negative effects of the war on the global economy. The US is now reimposing its ineffective naval blockade, and Hormuz is closed once again.

Last week, the US secretary of state was declaring that Hormuz is international waters, and that no one had the right to charge a fee for passage. He is incorrect. Hormuz lies entirely within Iranian and Omani territorial waters. They are entitled to charge for access, as Turkey does for passage through the Dardanelles. Iran was proposing a 1-2% administrative fee, in lieu of reparations for all the damage inflicted upon them in this illegal war of aggression. This week, Trump has declared that the US will call itself the Guradian of Hormuz, and will charge a 20% fee, as a protection racket. This is not going to happen as the US is incapable of protecting shipping or its allies in the region, and this is widely known. Trump’s ignorant pronouncements are simply making the US look foolish. He has on occasion, even claimed that Hormuz should be renamed the Strait of Trump. Whatever mental faculties he may once have possessed have deserted him.

The consequences for the global economy have not yet manifested in earnest, but they are coming, some sooner than others. The first order effects are predictable, but supply chains are so complex that there will inevitably be severe impacts that could hit with no warning. Global energy supply will hit a wall once reserves are fully depleted. Prices have been kept low through manipulation in the paper market by the US, but this has encouraged shorting, on the mistaken belief that peace is right around the corner, as Trump keeps saying it is. This cannot continue forever. Once reserves are gone, the futures price will converge with the spot price at a much higher level. The shorts will then have to cover, driving prices even higher in a short squeeze. Diesel, aviation fuel, and bunker fuel will be in very short supply due to a lack of the longer chain hydrocarbons necessary to produce them.

As a result, expect rationing, with the public being at the bottom of the heap. Expect considerable difficulties with distribution of goods and services, and for air travel to be almost entirely curtailed as aviation fuel becomes reserved for the military. High energy prices will feed through into everything else, leading to large scale demand destruction from the public and a global depression. If oil begins to flow again at some point, demand from countries seeking to replenish and increase reserves will be enormous, likely keeping energy prices out of reach for ordinary people. Travel in any mechanised form will become problematic at best, and may be impossible for all but the super-rich. As goods may not be able to move, people will have to rely on their local reality, but few even know what this looks like, as they’re so used to a globalised world. Adaptation takes time, but what’s coming will be a rug-pull. Those who’ve taken no steps to prepare in advance are going to find trying to do so belatedly very difficult. Even those who have prepared will likely be hit with unpleasant surprises.

Other essentials that are now supply-constrained include liquified natural gas (LNG), fertiliser, aluminum, helium, and sulphuric acid. Much of Asia relies on LNG, and Europe is also increasingly dependent. Natural gas is neccessary to produce nitrogen fertiliser through the Haber-Bosch process, which is extremely energy intensive due to the need to crack the triple bond between the two atoms in atmospheric nitrogen. Phosphate fertiliser relies on supplies of sulphuric acid to extract the resource from phosphate rock. Without fertiliser, crop yields will plummet. Some regions are already hard hit, because their planting window has been missed. Others will lack the energy to run the machinery they need for harvesting, or both the energy and fertiliser they need formplanting next year. Famine is now inevitable. This war has signed the death certificates of potentially hundreds of millions of people.

Helium is essential for the production of computer chips, and much of the supply came from the Gulf. China, which was also a large producer, has now banned exports. The AI bubble is already very fragile, as there’s no business case that could make the industry profitable in its current form. A shortage of chips would seal its fate, with trillions in potential losses. This will, of course, aggravate the coming depression. So will the on-going destruction of infrastructure, both in the Gulf and in Russia, which is now an energy importer due to NATO-backed destruction of refineries and shipping. The loss of aluminum smelting in the Gulf will also have a major impact. The process is extremely energy-intensive, so there are relatively few places where it can be done. The energy required must be both plentiful and cheap, and that is increasingly unlikely.

Even if the war were to end tomorrow, which it won’t, it would take years to restore supply chains for many things. The pre-war level of oil production will never be restored, due to damage to shut in fields. LNG infrastructure in Qatar, which was a major exporter, has been badly damaged and will take 3-5 years to repair. The world is looking at a depression much more severe than the 1930s, and potentially longer lasting due to physical constraints that were not present back then. In the 1930s, the shortage was of the money required to connect producers and consumers, or buyers and sellers. It was a depression that occurred while surrounded by a virgin continent’s worth of resources due a the collapse of a human system – finance.

This time resource constraints will be very real, although demand destruction will have dropped demand by the public very substantially. Most people will be living in a very different world than they had anticipated, and for them depression conditions could last for the rest of their lives. Working together and pooling resources among extended families and communities will be essential. While material prosperity will likely be a thing of the past, people may well rediscover the genuine human connection that has largely been missing for a long time. Life at a basic level of material wealth need not be the end of the world, even though the adjustment will be difficult. Build relationships of trust now, before people start to panic and cease to be functional. Preparation, both physical and social, is the best antidote to losing one’s mind when adverse events hit, and also the best way to make a fulfilling life from whatever circumstances prevail after the dust settles.

It’s been obvious for a very long time that the US has been sliding into fascism, and that religious extremists have been gaining power. The extent to which this has occurred is still shocking. The trend existed well before Trump, but under Trump it has accelerated dramtically. Trump himself is not remotely religious, but he depends on those who are, as they form a significant fraction of his political base. He has elevated white Christian nationalists to positions of considerable power in his administration. The ideas stem from the New Apostolic Reformation (NAR) propagated by dominionists. Some of these are obvious, like Pete Hegseth, who is attempting to turn the entire military into a religious organisation engaged in a new Crusade. He is also purging women and minorities from the ranks. The pastor he brings in, Doug Wilson, is even more extreme than Hegseth himself. The man would remove women’s right to vote, and also the votes of non-Christians. Others are less visible but hold powerful positions behind the scenes, notably Russell Vought at the Office of Management and Budget, whose nickname is The Grim Reaper.

The plan is for blasphemy laws and religious ‘purity tests’, meaning that only churches conforming to a fire and brimestone version of Christianity would be considered true Christians, and those who do not conform could be arrested for blasphemy and their church property seized. While extremeist church leaders speak openly about their plans, they tell their subordinates not to talk about it because “Americans aren’t ready”. They intend to introduce ‘sabbath laws’, which would prevent people from doing anything but attending church on Sundays, and then socially enforcing church attendance. They want to consolidate their hold on power before stepping out from behind the curtain. Political candidates at all levels are coached to hide their extremism.

The rest of the population doesn’t understand the nature and extent of the threat. They don’t realise that opposition to the agenda is intended to see them classified as domestic terrorists, because disagreement is considered violence. Religious liberty is defined as them being able to live as they choose, while forcing the same views and lifestyle on everyone else. The kind of views that are considered to be blasphemy include female equality, marriage equality, gay rights, bodily autonomy and even environmental laws. All of these are held to be intimidation and coercion of the ‘righteous’, meaning themselves.

The intention is to create a ‘Christian constitution’, and increasingly force compliance. Attendance would be monitored, with sanctions on those who didn’t come frequently enough, and wages would be forceably garnished on behalf of the church. Every non-Christian, or insufficiently extremist Christian, would be deprived of civil rights.

The US is fond of describing other countries, like Iran, as theocracies, and calling their leaders crazy religious extremists. Under the proposed Christian constitution, the US would become far more theocratic than Iran is today. While Iran was strongly theocratic after the revolution that overthrew the repressive Shah, installed as a western puppet after the 1953 overthrow of Iran’s elected leader, it is not repressively theocratic now. Women are no longer required to cover up for instance, and they are encouraged to be highly educated. Positions in public life are fully accessible to them, as are leadership roles. A US run by people like Doug Wilson would steal far more freedom from much of the population than Iran does, and would resemble the Iran of about 1980.

Spain followed a similar path at the end of its hegemonic period. It went from an outward looking society to one that descended into inward looking religious repression. This was the era of the Inquisition, when religious conformity was enforced under threat of torture or being burned at the stake. Other historical periods have followed the same pattern, notably resulting in literal witch hunts that saw millions of women falsely accused and murdered. The closest the US has previously come to this kind of mob rule within living memory would be the secular Red Scare under Senator Joseph McCarthy, where there was a moral panic over so-called communists, or ‘reds under the bed’ as they were described at the time. Innocent people were executed. This was one of the more shameful periods in American history. What the white Christian nationalists want this time would be very much worse. It remains to be seen if they can achieve their vision, or if enough people will realise where their agenda is headed and prevent it taking hold. Vigilance is necessary, as is standing up for true liberty. Church and state are separate under the constitution for very good reasons.

Ted Postol is an expert weapons analyst. Here he’s discussing the abject failure of the Patriot missile defence system, and the development of missile and drone systems that can render all forms of air defence obsolete. Postol analysed the success rate of PAC2 interceptors during the old Gulf war, and found it to be essentially zero. The PAC3 was an upgrade, but very expensive at $4million each, and requiring the participation of some 400 factories. They cannot be produced in large quantities, and definitely not quickly. Two interceptors are fired at an incoming threat, but that threat may be a $20K-$50K drone. The financial disparity is ruinous.

To succeed, the PAC3 must hit an incoming warhead head on, causing the warhead to explode in midair. If it doesn’t hit precisely, the warhead will detatch and continue on to the ground where it will explode. It’s approximately like trying to hit a bullet with another bullet. As it turns out the success rate is approximately 2%, and only against non-hypersonic missiles following an entirely predictable trajectory. Unfortunately for air defence, missile development is preceding rapidly. There are now many hypersonic missiles, and many that are manouverable in flight. There are also missiles that spit out multiple decoys mimicking the actual warhead, making it impossible to intercept the right one.

Patriot systems depend on a single radar, unlike the Russian S-series which use multiple ones, and that radar is very vulnerable, even to simple drones. If the extremely expensive radar is destroyed, the system is useless. This has happened many times in both the Ukraine and Gulf wars, but Patriot systems are still sought after due to the propaganda as to their success rate from the contractors who build them. It is rapidly becoming impossible to defend against missile and drone attacks. Patriot systems are very effective against aircarft, which are much slower, but if they can be taken out by missiles and drones, then there would be no protection against aircraft either. This would create airpower dominance, allowing the much larger explosive devices carried by aircraft to be deployed with impunity. The Russians have used their FAB glide-bombs to great effect in Ukraine. They have everything from FAB250-FAB3000, refering to the weight of the bomb in kilograms. These are capable of massive destruction.

Israel’s Iron Dome is no more effective than the Patriot system, so Israel has suffered a great deal of damage from Iranian and Hezbollah missiles strikes. The damage is concealed and never discussed in the media. Similarly, the American bases in the Gulf have been virtually destroyed. Radars costing up to half a billion dollars were taken out at the beginning of the war, leaving the bases and Israel blind as to incoming threats.

The Russian air defence systems are less vulnerable and more effective, but even these are unlikely to win in the arms race between measures and counter-measures given the speed of missile development and the ubiquitous presence of cheap drones. The future of air defence in general is bleak.

Have you heard of the White Helmets? They’re touted as first responders, and as an aid organisation, but that’s not at all what they really are. They’re a construct of western intelligence services, and their role is to subvert the role of existing essential services in targeted countries, as well as being able to create media impressions around certain events in order to bolster western government narratives. Their most notorious actions were undertaken in Syria, where they were involved in staging a supposed chemical weapons attack that was then blamed on Bashar al Assad’s government. When you’re in a location before anyone else, you can plant or hide evidence, and create a narrative façade that suits your masters. These people are now being deployed to Venezuela, ostensibly to help with the aftermath of the earthquakes, but their real mission will be to undermine what’s left of Venezuelan sovereignty. The US has called Venezuela a basket case for years, without ever bothering to mention that its was primarily US sanctions that caused their situation. Of course there was corruption, but the sanctions regime has far more negative impact.

Covert missions like this will be deployed in many states that the dying empires wishes to co-opt for its own benefit. The approach is far more subtle than older forms of imperialism, but far more effective in the battle of competing narratives that increasingly drive public opinion, both in the imperial centre and in the target country. Manufactured public opinion is then used to justify more aggressive actions against countries the empire targets for their resources or strategic location. The empire also wants plenty of proxies to fight its wars to maintain supremacy, as Ukraine is currently being used to fight to the last Ukrainian in an unwinnable war to weaken Russia. The European vassal states are now sending back Ukrainian men who had escaped, often at great cost, so they can die for the empire. Next will be Europeans themselves, as their pathetic governments (chosen for that characteristic by the international powers that dictate the policies they’re to follow) are talking themselves into war with Russia despite massive public opposition. Russia is taking the threat seriously, and may feel forced to stage pre-emptive strikes, which would then be used to paint them as the aggressors when NATO has been the aggressive party against them for the last twelve years.

The mask of empire has been entirely discarded under the massively corrupt and infinitely blackmailable Trump. He’s a puppet controlled by kompromat who no longer possesses the mental faculties to understand his own situation or the extremely dangerous one that his prompted actions are creating for the rest of the world. The wars are going to merge and spread, accompanied by energy crisis, financial crisis, and famine simultaneously. It’s possible that this will be the last gasp of an empire caught in Thucydides trap, and that the power that’s shifting inexorably eastwards will continue to rise. However, it’s also possible the the coming polycrisis will destroy modernity entirely, given how many crucial commodities are affected, and how much worse this could get. Once broken, supply chains take a very long time to re-establish, and can only do so if sufficient trust and energy resources exist. International trust takes years to decades to establish, and energy supplies are never going to reach their pre-war level. Relocalising resilience will be essential, but very difficult in a low trust environment where people will struggle to be able to work together. Brace for impact.

Trump had killed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, which he almost certainly never intended to implement anyway. Trump never follows through on anything he signs. It’s his modus operandi to make a deal and then twist its terms to suit himself, in order to create a win-lose situation. Not only must his opponents not gain anything in any deal, but they must lose and be humiliated. These are the tactics he learned from his mentor, mob lawyer and throughly despicable human being Roy Cohen. Unfortunately for him, he holds no cards this time, and no amount of bluster and attempted bullying will make any difference. Trump has violated every aspect of the MOU and it is now functionally dead. The consequences for both the US and global economies will be severe, and the entire world will blame him for it, even though he’s by no means the only architect of this disaster.

The US encouraged multiple tankers to attempt a crossing of the strait of Hormuz, hugging the Omani coastline in order to avoid following the Iranian directives for safe passage as described in the MOU. The tankers were fired on, as Iran had warned they would be. The US used this as an excuse to attack Iran again, this time destroying civilian infrastructure and connectivity between BRICS nations (Russia, China, and India). This is yet another example of American perfidiousness, which they learned from the British (I am originally British and fully entitled to criticise my own country for its dastardly ways). The US was engaging in provocation, in order to give it an excuse for further destruction, as its regional attack dog, Israel, will only be satisfied with the complete destruction and dismemberment of Iran. Israel and the US are now officially joined at the hip, as two aspects of the evil empire. This is an empire in decline, but empires in decline don’t go away quietly. They always find themselves in Thucydides Trap, which is exactly where it finds itself today – fighting in a vain attempt to cling to supremacy in the face of overwhelming global opposition.

Trump has been acurately described as ‘the Baboon from Barbaria’ for his complete failure to understand the situation, combined with his mob-conditioned personality. There has never been an individual less suited to the position he holds, and more likely to bring about unprecendented global destruction. His narcissism will not allow him to admit defeat, even when it’s absolutely and obviously inevitable. He must always double down, no matter how doomed such action may be. He must also lie about every aspect, pretending that it is his opponents who are desperate, when it’s clearly himself. Trump has been told about the disaster that awaits the US economy, and also the global economy, although he doesn’t care about the latter. He has been outmatched in every possible way by his opponents, and has ensured that the disaster will unfold as predicted.

Iran has now let it be known that one more strike from the US is likely to trigger their withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT), leaving them free to develop nuclear weapons if they choose to do so. They have no desire to do so, as they’ve made clear for decades, but may feel forced to re-establish deterrence. Leaving the NPT would take some time. They would need to file an article 10 notice to withdraw in 90 days. The decision will be up to the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son of the martyred leader whose funeral has just been the largest gathering in human history. 45 million people have come out on the streets across several countries for this event. Many are waving red flags, which signal revenge in Shia Islam. The reformist Iranian president was recently booed for his willingness to talk to representatives of the empire. He will not be able to resist the overwhelming will of his people for much longer. They want no negotiations, no compromises, no deals. They’ve been forced into an uncompromising position by the actions of Trump and his deep state puppet masters. The assassinations have had the same galvanising effect that Pearl Harbour had on the US

The escalation ladder has been dramatically revived. It remains to be seen where this will take the world. Iran is in full control of it, as they can absorb punishment and outlast the US. Their culture is grounded the heroic sacrifice for a greater goal, their ability to control Hormuz cannot seriously be challenged, and they have the ability to destroy the energy infrastructure of the US vassal states in the region. They can also call on Ansar Allah (the Houthis) to close the Ba-al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, further compromising global energy supply. It makes no sense for the US to continue this pointless war, which can only result in a global economic depression, but Trump cannot walk away. One person to listen to for the inside track is Asim Munir, head of the Pakistani army, who has been an essential part of the negotiation process. He passes on essential information through communication channels. This is an extremely volatile situation.

The funeral of Ayatollah Khamenei has been a phenomenon unprecedented in human history. Tens of millions of people have poured into the streets in every city where aspects of the funeral have taken place. Dignitaries from many countries have attended to pay their respects. Attendance is much larger than for the funerals of Ayatollah Khomeni, General Solemani, or Hassan Nesrallah, even though those were also extremely well attended. The phenomenon continues, in more cities, and also in other countries, notably Iraq which also has a Shia majority. This represents a key turning point in history, as the world realises that the empire has been defeated by a middle power that stood up to them, and in doing so has become a much greater power. Iran is now a major force to be reckoned with. The country is a natural defensive fortress with the ultimate leverage over the global economy due to its proximity to a critical choke point. It’s also the hinge point for pan-Asian economic integration, and therefore a critical node in the transfer of power from west to east. It was attacked because of this, and because it dared to stand for sovereignty rather than kowtow to the imperial bully.

The world has changed markedly as a result of this ill-advised conflict that any sane analyst could have said was unwinnable. Two malignant narcisissts – Trump and Netanyahu – have, in their hubris, engineered the downfall of empire. The world no longer respects the Iron Dome, or fears the US military, which is much depleted and still largely living in the 1980s, with obsolete equipment and ideas. The US couldn’t defeat the Houthis in Yemen and has now failed against Iran. It only succeeded in Venezuela due to internal corruption that involved the Vice President agreeing to hand over the President in exchange for substantial bribes no doubt. The US hasn’t been on the winning side of a war against a peer competitor since WW2, and even then it was the Soviets who truly defeated the Nazis, at huge cost to themselves.

Warfare has moved on decisively. In the era of drones, everything about how wars are fought, and with what, has changed. Iran began the drone era, which was later copied by the Russians and the Ukrainians. This was the decision of Ayatollah Khamenei, and he was criticised at the time for this, and for his decision to construct so much underground infrastructure at great cost. It was also his initiative to create a decentralised control structure with many layers of redundancy, so a decapitation strike would not disable the country. Even the erstwhile reformers who’d been seeking closer ties with the west for years have now admitted he was right, and that the empire would never have accepted or respected people they consider subhuman. The Israelis say this explicitly, while the US implies it through their actions.

Many types of weaponry are now obsolete, and so are many tactics. Drones and satellite imagery allow for almost total visibility. Night vision and thermal imaging drones allow for this under most conditions. Unconcealed targets can be identified and eliminated rapidly. AI is being used for targeting, with some successes and also with some disastrous effects. Troop accumulations are no longer possible, as they would immediately be targeted and eliminated, so a much more dispersed form of warfare occurs. This has been obvious in the Ukraine land war, where drones, comms networks, mesh technology, satellite imagery, and missiles have really shown their combined abilities. Those abilities would devastate any imperial attempt at a ground invasion of Iran. The US military knows it lacks the capacity to invade, even if it doesn’t really understand why beyond the lack of sufficient manpower, so a ground war there is very unlikely. Unfortunately, the lack of conventional options to continue the conflict makes the use of nuclear weapons more likely. Israel, in the grip of insane bloodlust, would be the most likely party to resort to this, even though it would mean their own destruction. This is their Sampson option, which has been in place since the days of Golda Meir. An empire in decline is a cornered animal, prone to lashing out in desperation.

Iran has struck a blow for sovereignty in a world where most states have been vassalised through the US-controlled financial system, and are no longer independent. This has been increasingly obvious since the covid era, when government across the west and beyond messaging was fully coordinated by the WEF. Governments were co-opted into poisoning their own people, covering up the extreme harm, and adding insult to injury by failing the affected in every possible way. They have all lost political legitimacy as a result, but at the moment this no longer matters as elections are organised in such a way as to disenfranchise any opposition to globalist mandates. The desperately unpopular leaders stay in place, or are replaced by equally subservient puppets who will carry on the same destructive agenda. Perhaps Iran has given others the courage to throw off the shackles of empire. The price for independence is high, but the price for continued subservience is ultimately much higher.

Section 219 of the National Defence Authorisation bill, would merge the Israeli military into the US military. An amendment to prevent this was not even allowed a vote in the House of Representatives. This would be formal acknowledgement of the fusion between the two governments that has become increasingly obvious, but is at odds with the opinion of a majority of the American people. When Netanyahu has visited the US, he typically receives multiple standing ovations, despite the stream of televised war crimes his government has ordered. Any criticism of these actions is met with cries of anti-semitism, and such criticism is actually becoming illegal. Israel is the one country not allowed to be challenged over its behaviour, at a time when robust denunciation is highly appropriate. Meanwhile the American public is increasingly horrified by Israel’s actions. So are the populations of other western countries, althought their governments, like the US, are still in thrall to Israel despite its barbarism. Perhaps besides having bribed many western government officials the Israelis may also have kompromat on at least some of them, as this is known to have been one of their strategies, conducted by Jeffrey Epstein.

Israel currently receives billions in monetary aid, plus billions more in weaponry. Life on a kibbutz is subsidied by American taxpayers, so is Israeli free healthcare, and IDF soldiers receive the same benefits as American veterans. American citizens would love to have access to the benefits their own government showers on Israeli citizens. Israel has been an outpost the the Anglo-American empire since its inception, but this bill is the first attempt to merge the outpost formally into the centre of empire. Israel would then have access to far more funding, and intelligence, all with no oversight at all, despite the fact that Israeli and American priorities do not necessarily align. Take for instance the case of Jonathan Pollard, who stole nuclear secrets for Israel and also sold them to America’s adversaries. His is the worst case of damaging espionage in US history. He was jailed, but pardoned by Trump and allowed to return to Israel, where he was warmly welcomed by America’s zionist ambassador to Israel and is now running for a seat in the Knesset.

The bill as proposed is unconstitutional, not that the current American regime cares at all about either the law or the constitution. It would bind the imperial centre ever more tightly to its rabid attack dog in the Middle East, rightly associating the US with the litany of Israeli war crimes in the minds of the rest of the world. The empire has dropped the mask it’s worn for so long, and no longer pretends to care about niceties such as democracy or human rights. Now it indulges in naked power and resource grabs, even as its power wains internationally. The rest of the world has grown very tired of American bullying and extortion, and of the weaponisation of the reserve currency and of the international financial architecture. Alternative financial arrangements are being developed, along with alternative trade routes. Empires in decline never go quietly. It’s entirely possible that either the US or Israel, when out of other options, will eventually resort to using nuclear weapons. The rest of us can only hope that sanity will prevail.

Mass formation is a form of social psychosis. Its nature has been covered here in depth before. The factors making a society vulnerable to mass formation are social atomisation, a loss of meaning in life, free floating anxiety and free floating aggression. Free floating refers to anxiety or aggression not focused on anything specific. When a crisis (either natural or manufactured) comes along, the free floating anxiety develops a strong focus on a specific perceived threat. When a ‘solution’ is offered, which may well be a trap rather than a true solution, people become fanatically focused upon it, to the exclusion of all else. It’s as if they were collectively hypnotised. They can no longer see evidence against their chosen ‘solution’, no matter how obvious it may be to those not caught up in the mass formation. The become radically intolerant of anyone who opposes the implementation of the ‘solution’, and if the mass formation leads to its logical conclusion, it will end in atrocities. Social psychosis is an emotional state, and as such is highly contagious. Humans, like other mammals, internalise, express, and act upon the emotions they perceive around them. It can be difficult, and increasingly dangerous, to be a dissident, but dissidents speaking out in opposition is the only means of weakening the hypnosis sufficiently to orevent the mass formation reaching its violent final form.

This is exactly what’s happening in Israel today, and has reached its logical conclusion as the country is committing constant atrocities in Gaza, the West Bank, and Lebanon. The dead since October 7th number in the hundreds of thousands, with many unaccounted for as they’re buried under the rubble of their former homes. Israelis celebrate their war crimes. There are school trips to the edge of Gaza so the students can watch the bombing. A new death penalty law has been passed, only applicable to Palestinians. Government ministers refer to the Palestinians, and their other neighbours, as Amalek, which is a religious reference to a tribe that was ordered to be slaughtered in its entirety. The country has come to collectively believe that it’s their moral duty to kill all their enemies, even children and babies, because they would otherwise grow up to be Arabs, and they consider all Arabs to be terrorists. The whole country is in the grip of mob mentality and bloodlust. It’s becoming more religious, but of the fire and brimstone kind.

Israelis have always felt threatened by their neighbours, and sought to increase their own security at the expense of neighbouring states. October 7th, which it is increasingly clear was allowed to happen, cemented this fear very strongly. It unified a previously divided country behind a desire to exterminate the Palestinians and ‘ethnically clease’ the Arab populations between the Nile and the Euphrates in order to create Greater Israel. Israel is now at war with/in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Iran and Yemen, and it describes Turkey and Pakistan as further targets. It regards other ethnicities and adherents to other religions as subhuman – lacking a full soul. Government ministers have proclaimed that international law doesn’t apply to the ‘chosen people’.

Israel has a population of under nine million, of who less than seven million are Jewish, and that number is decreasing as people emigrate. The surrounding region has a population of about a hundred and ninety million. Only people in the grip of a mass formation could fail to realise that they lack the capacity to take on all their neighbours at once, even with the backing of the US. It should have been obvious from the beginning that war with Iran would be futile and unwinnable, as the country is a natural fortress armed to the teeth after forty years of preparation. However, no reason or logic or evidence can penetrate minds in the grip of a mass formation. Having failed to be on the winning side in the war, Israel is now determined to derail any attempt at peace in whatever way necessary. Expect targeted assassinations, false flag attacks, terrorism, dirty tactics like the pager bombings etc. The country is at risk of disintegration due to economic collapse and widespread demoralisation, especially amongst young IDF soldiers who now have PTSD. The IDF is aware of its own limitations, but political considerations (namely Netanyahu’s desire to stay out of jail) dictate that there are no limits, and that total destruction if enemies is an imperative no matter the cost. For a nuclear power to be so deep in the grip of a mass formation is extremely dangerous. Combine that with a US – another nuclear power – in political turmoil, and run by a group of incompentent fools with plenty of hubris but no strategy, and the risk is very high. Beware of narratives pushed by warmongers for their own purposes.

Russia has been very restrained in its approach to the war in Ukraine. It has not responded in kind to the endless provocations undertaken by NATO in its proxy war intended to be fought to the last Ukrainian. As a result, the NATO countries have become increasingly emboldened and have continually escalated. They no longer seem to fear that Russia will ever react, especially beyond Ukraine to its suppliers of weaponry and intelligence. However, Russian patience appears to be wearing out. Last year the was an attack on Puntin’s residence, there have been several high profile assassinations, and this year a deliberate drone attack on a university dorm killed a number of students. Attacks on fuel infrastructure are causing fuel queues, and attacks on bridges around Crimea have isolated the region from supply and support, generating considerable misery. Civilians are killed every day by drone strikes. American and European politicians are openly calling for the strategic defeat and dismemberment of Russia.

The Russian population is now extremely angry, and is increasingly pressuring the leadership to act decisively. Russia has been holding back manpower and capabilities, partly in order to avoid the full scale mobilisation that transitioning from special military operation to all out war would entail, and to avoid taking any more casualties than absolutely necessary. However, this may be about to change. There are powerful calls for Russia to restore deterrence, by taking out the government in Kiev and taking the fight directly to the decision-making centres in Europe. Professor Karaganov used to be a lone voice in this regard, but no longer. He suggests that it may be necessary to use a nuclear weapon against Western Europe, although Russia has plenty of conventional means to show Europe it means business. It has weponry that NATO has no response to, but may still be concerned about what may happen if retaliation for the many attacks against it may trigger Article 5, and bring it into direct (as opposed to the current indirect) conflict with all of NATO.

Russia initially claimed four oblasts – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhia – in addition to Crimea which had oreviously be annexed after a decisive referendum. Now they alpear to have recognised that preventing further attacks deep into Russia likely requires them to take more territory as a buffer zone. Putin now talks about reclaiming the traditionally Russian territories of Novorossiya, which would include another four oblasts – Kharkov, Nikolaev, Dnipro, and Odessa – with inroads into Sumy as well. Kiev may also be a target. Belarus may become involved at some point as well. Taking Odessa would be particularly important, as this would deprive Ukraine of a port through which to import weapons. As a landlocked rump state, Ukraine would not be a viable political entity. Takin gover Odessa would also allow Russia to connect with the Russian-speaking population of Transdniestria (part of Moldova), which has been under threat.

Progress has been relatively slow thsi past year, largely thanks to the effectiveness of drone warfare. This prevents troops from aggregating in large numbers for an offensive, and makes crossing open territory extremely dangerous. Every movement in the open can be immediately detected, and a drone dispatched to take out personnel. This is a very different kind of warfare, where drone operators are the deadliest component. It isn’t obvious yet how Russia may be intending to ramp up its offensive, given that drones will comtinue to be a major factor. One aspect of recent strategy has been the targeting of gas stations across eastern Ukraine, in order to hamper Ukrainian logistics.

Aggressive rhetoric from Europe combined with Ukrainian proxy forces adorned with Nazi tattoos act as a powerful reminder of WW2 for the Russians, and that was a war that cost them over 20 million people. Europe isn’t actually capable of invading Russia, but constantly threatening to do so anyway is raising the temperature considerably. This is extremely dangerous. Europe is playing with fire, quite likely literally. So is the US, which is flailing around with no strategic vision of what it’s trying to accomplish and how. Trumpian optics seem to be all that matters, but illusion is going to be dispelled by reality in the relatively near future.

It’s becoming increasingly clear that the US never intended to honour the agreement it signed with Iran. The empire never negotiates in good faith. It always uses negotiations as cover for buying time to improve its own position. There is no point in attempting to negotiate with utterly an untrustworthy party that will stab you in the back at the first opportunity. The elder Khamenei apparently understood this, but the reformer faction under President Pezeshkian does not. The younger Khamenei has given Penzeshkian leave to proceed with negotiations despite his stated reservations, but the opportunity is not likely to last in the face of the perfidious actions of the American/Israeli axis. The US and its rabid attack dog are agreement incapable and will continue their quest for supremacy no matter the price the whole world will have to pay.

From the American perspective, the point of the MOU was not to end its aggression against Iran, but to open the strait of Hormuz, find ways to degrade Iran’s ability to manage it, lull Iran into a false sense of security, facilitate Israel’s destruction of its allies in Lebanon, and buy themselves time for renewed attempts at destroying Iran in accordance with Israel’s demands. The first clause of the MOU states that Lebanon is included in the ceasefire, but the US and Israel then arranged for a second MOU with the Lebanese puppet regime that directly contradicts the MOU with Iran. That agreements allows for permanent Israeli occupation of much of Lebanon, while setting the stage for a bloody civil war in the country. The Lebanese army is now tasked with disarming Hezbollah, which it is incapable of doing since it’s no more than a local police force because it’s not allowed by its US masters to possess any real military equipment. The point is to set the rest of the country against the Shia population in the south, which is being systematically driven out of their homes and their villages then destroyed. Israel then threatens to bomb anyone who gives the refugees shelter. It seeks to genocide the Shia population of Lebanon just as it has been doing with the population of Gaza.

The US also refuses to lift sanctions or to return frozen Iranian assets as it agreed to do. It has been pressuring Oman to allow vessels to transit Hormuz by hugging its coastline, and when Iran disables such vessels, the US uses that as an excuse to target Iranian radars along their coast that are used to manage the strait. It uses financial leverage to control its vassals – extending or withdrawing credit, and holding power over domestic banking systems in a way that would allow them to destroy a country’s economy at will. The reserve currency and the SWIFT system have been fully weaponised in order to leverage the remaining power of the empire, even as it destroys itself internally.

Its economy is failing, its people are divided and demoralised, it’s drowning in unrepayable debt, and its military has been revealed as far less powerful than it once was, despite the obscene amounts of money wasted on it. Financial power, backed by technological control through AI, is being substitued for military power, but that can only last for so long until enough of the world manages to extract itself from the dollar system and from the malign influence of the technical industrial complex exemplified by Palantir. The attempt to force support for US debt on to the rest of the world at the retail level through stablecoins, and to subjugate the global population through control of its data, is a last ditch effort preserve and cement that power. However, the extreme contralisation of control that’s being attempted is unlikely to succeed in an energy constrained world, given that the ability to maintain complexity is a function of surplus energy.

The empire is mired in Thucydides trap, fighting its own decline in the most destructive way possible, at the expense of the entire world. The rising power lies in the east, although it too is facing a wide range of challenges. The destruction of energy infrastructure, and of the capacity for production and distribution, is going to be globally devastating, as will the collapse of complex supplies chains and trade with the reversal of globalisation. Many countries in the east have severe demographic challenges, with birthrates far below replacement rate and young people demoralised to the point no longer wanting to have children. China, Japan and South Korea all have collapsing birthrates, and Russia’s is also low despite the wealth of natural resources providing for self-sufficiency that should insulate it from much of the impact of deglobalisation. The empire’s drone war against it is clearly harming both demographics and necessary infrastructure. India and Africa are still growing, but India is facing challenges with regard to energy, water, and agricultural capacity. An exodus is increasingly likely.

The Great Reset as proposed is meant to be a great subjugation of the many by the international hyper-wealthy few, with the super-rich continuing to live their jet-setting gilded lives off the backs of an enslaved (albeit greatly reduced) global majority, but this is a vision grounded in extreme hubris and a failure to grasp reality. The few depend on the labour of productivity of the many in ways they fail to understand. They depend of an energy supply that they take utterly for granted, assuming that they can maintain their own level of luxury by simply depriving the rest of virtually everything. Their gated communities and walled greenzones are likely to become gilded prisons once the abused masses eventually turn on them, as history suggests will happen. For the moment people have too much to lose, but once they have nothing left to lose, revolution becomes their only option. Unfortunately a great deal of destruction is inevitable as the dynamic of attempted control and inevitable failure plays out. Those who are left standing in the aftermath will rebuild with the remaining resources and infrastructure, but not to anywhere near our current standard of living. The heights we achieved were thanks to the fossil fuels that we’re currently destroying, and those heights will not be regained. Human development is still possible of course, but not in the purely material terms we have come to expect. Stability and trust can be rebuilt eventually, but at much smaller scale and with far more realistic expectations. The process will likely take decades, as trust destroyed takes a very long time to re-establish. Humanity less obsessed with material gain and more interested in working together, at least within a smaller trust horizon, for mutual benefit would ultimately be a happier humanity. The march of history will continue its rise and fall as it has for millennia.