The aggressors are not faring well in this war, even though they conceal or deny the damage they’re taking, and the consequences for the rest of the world are escalating. The energy supply impacts are bad enough – 20% of the world’s oil production offline – and states of emergency being declared in Asia. Other impacts may have a less immediate impact, but not less important to the global economyand the global population. 35% of the world’s fertiliser comes through the Straits of Hormuz, along with the sulphuric acid needed for chemical extraction in many industries, the helium required for the manufacture of computer chips in Taiwan, and many other commodities.
The cost and/or lack of availability of fertiliser is hitting the northern hemisphere exactly at planting time, guaranteeing that the window for planting will pass with much less planting done. Yields are very likely to be well down this year. The cost of agricultural fuel is also hitting farms very hard. In the southern hemisphere, expensive fuel and the looming potential for rationing, are affecting harvest season. This will all get much worse before it gets better, even if the war were to somehow end tomorrow, which is extremely unlikely.
Iran will be setting the timetable for the conflict, because they have escalation dominance. They have set conditions for the end of the war that the US will be unwilling to meet, so hostilities will continue. Declaring a false victory and going home will not be an option for America this time. Trump is trapped, and will take the blame for all of it when it turns into a complete disaster, which it will. Those who talked him into it, or blackmailed him into it, may escape accountability unfortunately.
Iran has 270 degree fire control over the Straits of Hormuz. They still have air defence, and many sea defences, despite lacking a conventional airforce or navy. They have huge numbers of the drones that have been so pivotal in the Ukraine war, and yet to use their most modern missiles. They have home field advantage over very challenging terrain. They are very unlikely to lose, even if carpet bombed with nuclear weapons. It’s very difficult to defeat a people who prize martyrdom and refuse to run even when their street gatherings are bombed.
In the meantime, the Straits of Hormuz now operate a tollgate system, requiring visual inspection to weed out vessels from hostile countries, a substantial toll paid in yuan, and evidence that the cargo has been purchased in yuan. This will generate billions of dollars per year for the Iranian economy, and will hasten the establishment of the petroyuan and the demise of the petrodollar.
Israel cleaerly wants the complete destruction of Iran as a state, so any attempt at an off-ramp is likely to be undermined by false flag attacks. Israel is already attacking infrastructure in the Gulf states with a view to starting a civil war between the Sunni and the Shia, so that they might destroy each other. Israel isn’t interested in regime change in Iran because that wouldn’t go far enough. They want the country bombed into the stone age, and balkanised into ethnic regions. Persians are just over 60% of the population, which also includes Kurds, Azeris, Baluchis, Arabs, Zoroastrians, Bahais, Jews, and Christians, all of whom have lived together for centuries. Some may prefer independence, but most do not. Israel will try to divide and rule as best it can.
It’s profoundly sad that Jews around the world who have nothing to do with this, and generally oppose it vehemently, will nevertheless face a major backlash for the actions of the fascistic zionists, a majority of whom are not even Jewish. That majority are imperial colonialists of European descent. All the hysteria about anti-semitism now is manufactured, but in the future it will almost certainly be real.
Trump gave Iran 48 hours to open the Straits of Hormuz, then extended it by five days (to allow for ground forces to arrive in the region), then extended it an extra ten, but Israel took matters into its own hands and bombed Iran’s steel plants. Iran has already said that bombing such infrastructure would be met with the destruction of energy and desalination infrastructure across the Gulf. This is exactly what Israel wants. The war must comtinue, and the various Muslim states must be encouraged to destroy each other. So far Iran has not engaged in mass retaliation. Their responses have always been measured so far, with responses in kind, but not escalation. It remains to be seen if the Israeli attacks continue to provoke regional destruction, and if America can withstand the carnage that’s likely to occur as a result of boots on the ground. At some point, the US may be forced to abandon Israel and the region, at which point Israel may cease to exist. Both aggressor countries appear to have bitten off more than they can chew.
