The US stages a disasterous operation to attempt to steal Iran’s enriched nuclear material, which they believed was being held in Isfahan. The operation cost them multiple aircraft and likely many casualties, although they don’t admit to those. Multiple generals had told Trump that this would be a disaster, but he didn’t listen. Instead he fired the generals. After the entirely predictable failure, the regime tried to spin the operation as a rescue of a downed pilot, but this made no sense given the scale of the forces deployed. Trump then called for a cesefire, presumably to provide breathing room for regrouping, since his offers of ceasefires or negotiations are always simply a pretext for some form of buying time for a sneak attack. The US is utterly untrustworthy and therefore not agreement capable.
The ceasefire announcement appeared to accept Iran’s conditions, which have not changed since the beginning of the conflict. Given that many of these conditions are completely contrary to the conditions previously stated by the US, it’s difficult to see why such an about-face would be considered credible. Iran’s 10-point peace plan:
- Guarantee that Iran will not be attacked again.
- Permanent end to the war, not just a ceasefire.
- End to Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
- Lifting of all US sanctions on Iran.
- End to all regional fighting against Iran’s allies.
- Iran would open the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran would impose a $2million fee per ship transiting Hormuz.
- Iran would split these fees with Oman.
- Iran would establish rules for safe passage through Hormuz.
- Iran would use Hormuz fees for reconstruction in lieu of reparations.
In any case, within a matter of hours Israel had shattered any pretense of ceasefire by carpet-bombing Beruit, killing hundreds of civilians. The ceasefire terms as originally released had clearly included Lebanon, but Israel denied this, and the US walked back their agreement with the Pakistani intermediaries. It also denied that it had ever agreed to accept any of the Iranian conditions that it had publicly said were a basis for negotiation. In other words, there is no ceasefire, only a pause in some of the violence while other aspects continue to escalate. It’s clear that Israel is in the driver’s seat, pushing the ill-informed and confused American regime in whtever direction it chooses. It still intends the utter destruction of the Iranian state, as well as the annexation of Lebanon and Syria into Greater Israel.
One thing the ceasefire announcement did achieve was market manipulation. Just prior to the announcement, an insider who clearly knew the announcement was coming had placed a bet that the price of oil would fall, which it temporarily did, allowing the insider to make millions of dollars. Market manipulation is a regular occurence with the utterly corrupt Trump regime.
Even if the war were to end tomorrow, energy crisis is already guaranteed. It would take months to years to restore production and distribution of oil and LNG. Othe supply chains for other essential commodities have also been heavily impacted, and the downstream effects cannot now be avoided. Fertliser supplies will have missed a critical window for planting. Helium shortages will halt computer chip production lines. A lack of sulphuric acid will impact extractive industries. Bulk carriers transporting all manner of goods have been halted, with unknown effect on a just-in-time global economy. Extreme disruption is inevitable, and will only worsen the longer the conflict continues. Given that the worls has entered a war cycle, both trust and international law have broken down completely, and we now operate under imperial might makes right, the conflict appears likely to continue potentially for years. Adaptation to scarcity will be necessary.
