Our just-in-time global system is engineered for economic efficiency, but with little ‘fat’ in the system, it is very brittle. The current supply chain disruptions are about to give that system a brutal kick that will have cascading effects throughout the global economy, some of which are predictable and some will come as a shock. One of the most predictable is disruption of the food supply, as supply chains for both fuel and fertiliser are heavily impacted by the war. Such disruptions cause famines, as they have throughout history. In the northern hemisphere, the window for planting is likely to be missed, and in the southern hemisphere harvest and distribution are likely to be substantially disrupted.
Demand shocks from panic buying tend to be short-lived, but supply shocks are not. They cause long-lasting shortages that must be adapted to. People are going to have to tighten their belts, become as productive as possible, and as collectively creative as possible. Access to productive land is necessary, but that need not imply ownership. Farmers deprived of fuel for machinery are going to be needing human labour, and labour will be exchanged for food. Urban ‘victory gardens’, as practiced in the UK during the WW2 blockade, are also possible, and essential. Food storage will matter a great deal, so learning various techniques for preservation is important.
Knowing what to store matters as much as knowing how. Proteins and fats are essential nutrients, but carbohydrates are not. They’re easier to store, but nutritionally insufficient. In addition, high glycemic index carbonydrates spike blood sugar, cause insulin secretion, which crashes blood sugar, resulting in sugar withdrawal that feels like intense hunger. This means you can be causing hunger by eating the wrong things. If blood sugar is stable, hunger is less urgent. Of course proteins and fats are more expensive and more challenging to store. It would be worth looking up recipes for pemmican, which is a travel food relied on by native people’s in North America. It’s not a taste treat, but it is an excellent survival food, and doesn’t require complicated storage.
Collective action will be essential. Communities will need to organise soup kitchens, involving local supplies and volunteer staffing. Cooperation can keep people fed, and is infinitely better than every man for himself, which would mean pointless conflict and thievery. The mindset shown at the anti-mandate demonstration at the Wellington Parliament is exactly what’s needed. People spontaneously organised a small village in a matter of days, and it functioned extremely well, all based on volunteering, donations, and cooperation.
Having hard goods for barter would be a great asset, but relative values will have changed dramatically. If you’re hungry enough, an ounce of gold may be worth half a dozen eggs and a loaf of bread. Tools, liquor, cigarettes, soap, coffee, and other practical goods that are currently not particularly expensive might make much better trading goods in an energy constrained future. Practical skills can also be traded, perhaps within a timebank structure, and even entertainment can be worth a meal. Introducing alternative forms of liquidity during the coming economic depression, such as local currencies, can make major difference, as that can alleviate some difficulties by facilitating trade between producers and consumers. The official form of purchasing power is likely to be in short supply in depressionary times, hence the need to supplement it.
Depending on location, the impact on the food supply could begin with distribution, meaning that food has been grown, but cannot be harvested and delivered due to fuel constraints, so shelves empty quickly. In other places, planting may be possible, but with insufficient fertiliser yields would be much smaller, and the impact may be compounded by insufficient fuel later in the cycle. Impacts will be uneven, as circumstances will be highly variable. Cities will fare worse than rural areas. Productive skills will matter more than almost anything, and neighbours must help each other. The coming shock could be the largest in human history, coming at a time when people are very poorly prepared to face it compared to historical examples. Cohesive communities are the way forward, and resilience must be relearned.
