Trump had killed the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Iran, which he almost certainly never intended to implement anyway. Trump never follows through on anything he signs. It’s his modus operandi to make a deal and then twist its terms to suit himself, in order to create a win-lose situation. Not only must his opponents not gain anything in any deal, but they must lose and be humiliated. These are the tactics he learned from his mentor, mob lawyer and throughly despicable human being Roy Cohen. Unfortunately for him, he holds no cards this time, and no amount of bluster and attempted bullying will make any difference. Trump has violated every aspect of the MOU and it is now functionally dead. The consequences for both the US and global economies will be severe, and the entire world will blame him for it, even though he’s by no means the only architect of this disaster.
The US encouraged multiple tankers to attempt a crossing of the strait of Hormuz, hugging the Omani coastline in order to avoid following the Iranian directives for safe passage as described in the MOU. The tankers were fired on, as Iran had warned they would be. The US used this as an excuse to attack Iran again, this time destroying civilian infrastructure and connectivity between BRICS nations (Russia, China, and India). This is yet another example of American perfidiousness, which they learned from the British (I am originally British and fully entitled to criticise my own country for its dastardly ways). The US was engaging in provocation, in order to give it an excuse for further destruction, as its regional attack dog, Israel, will only be satisfied with the complete destruction and dismemberment of Iran. Israel and the US are now officially joined at the hip, as two aspects of the evil empire. This is an empire in decline, but empires in decline don’t go away quietly. They always find themselves in Thucydides Trap, which is exactly where it finds itself today – fighting in a vain attempt to cling to supremacy in the face of overwhelming global opposition.
Trump has been acurately described as ‘the Baboon from Barbaria’ for his complete failure to understand the situation, combined with his mob-conditioned personality. There has never been an individual less suited to the position he holds, and more likely to bring about unprecendented global destruction. His narcissism will not allow him to admit defeat, even when it’s absolutely and obviously inevitable. He must always double down, no matter how doomed such action may be. He must also lie about every aspect, pretending that it is his opponents who are desperate, when it’s clearly himself. Trump has been told about the disaster that awaits the US economy, and also the global economy, although he doesn’t care about the latter. He has been outmatched in every possible way by his opponents, and has ensured that the disaster will unfold as predicted.
Iran has now let it be known that one more strike from the US is likely to trigger their withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation treaty (NPT), leaving them free to develop nuclear weapons if they choose to do so. They have no desire to do so, as they’ve made clear for decades, but may feel forced to re-establish deterrence. Leaving the NPT would take some time. They would need to file an article 10 notice to withdraw in 90 days. The decision will be up to the new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, who is the son of the martyred leader whose funeral has just been the largest gathering in human history. 45 million people have come out on the streets across several countries for this event. Many are waving red flags, which signal revenge in Shia Islam. The reformist Iranian president was recently booed for his willingness to talk to representatives of the empire. He will not be able to resist the overwhelming will of his people for much longer. They want no negotiations, no compromises, no deals. They’ve been forced into an uncompromising position by the actions of Trump and his deep state puppet masters. The assassinations have had the same galvanising effect that Pearl Harbour had on the US
The escalation ladder has been dramatically revived. It remains to be seen where this will take the world. Iran is in full control of it, as they can absorb punishment and outlast the US. Their culture is grounded the heroic sacrifice for a greater goal, their ability to control Hormuz cannot seriously be challenged, and they have the ability to destroy the energy infrastructure of the US vassal states in the region. They can also call on Ansar Allah (the Houthis) to close the Ba-al-Mandab strait at the southern entrance to the Red Sea, further compromising global energy supply. It makes no sense for the US to continue this pointless war, which can only result in a global economic depression, but Trump cannot walk away. One person to listen to for the inside track is Asim Munir, head of the Pakistani army, who has been an essential part of the negotiation process. He passes on essential information through communication channels. This is an extremely volatile situation.
