America is exhibiting typical late stage empire corruption and perfidiousness. The pronouncements emanating from Washington cannot be believed. Every time statements are made they’re later revealed to have been either a market manipulation strategy, to further enrich American oligarchs, or cover for a planned attack. Trust is entirely gone.
Trump recently set an ultimatum – 48 hours to open the Straits of Hormuz or he would reduce Iran’s energy sector to rubble. Iran replied that this would result in retaliation amounting to the destruction of energy and desalination infrastructure in the Gulf countries, which have essentially joined the war on the American side, despite denying it. Before Trump’s deadline expired, he TACOed (ie Trump Always Chickens Out), saying that talks with Iran were productive and that he was giving them an additional five days. Israel then promptly began bombing Iran’s energy infrastructure, with American weapons and covert American support. Iran made it clear that there had never been any talks.
Trump’s wealthy friends made a killing on the resulting market movements in both directions.
Iran has now begun its response, and it won’t be pretty.
Israel is trying to generate maximum conflict between the Sunni Muslim Gulf states and Shia Muslim Iran, in an attempt to get them to destroy each other for Israel’s benefit. The sectarian conflict is reminiscent of the European strife between Catholics and Protestants several hundred years ago. Israel is seeking to depopulate the region of Muslims of all kinds, but lacks the capacity to do it by themselves, hence the need to foment internecine conflict. Israel has also bombed Britain’s Diego Garcia base in the Indian Ocean, the British base in Cyprus, and oil infrastructure in Oman, trying to blame Iran for each attack. These are false flag attempts to widen the war. Iran lacks missiles that could reach Diego Garcia, but the false flag attack has been used to convince Europeans that Iran has the long range capacity to attack them, with a view to generating public support for the war in Europe. Additional false flags events may well be planned for the US, where support for the war is very low.
Geopolitical analyst Patrick Henningsen was in Iran during the recent protests which were initially peaceful, but then infiltrated by foreign instigators of extreme violence (Mossad, CIA, and MI6). The idea was to prompt the Iranian population to overthrow their own government, but it backfired. The foreign interference was noted by the people, and the result of the violence was much greater unity in the country behind the government. Henningsen’s account of that time should bear much more weight than the propaganda issued by western states trying to paint an entirely false picture of Iran in order to demonise the country and generate support for war. The Trump regime is losing support at a rapid rate and is becoming desperate.
Trump has issued delusional conditions for the end of hostilities:
Israeli media have leaked the 14 points the Trump administration has sent to Iran to end the war. They are laughable. They are the following…
- Iran must dismantle its existing nuclear capabilities.
- Iran must commit never to pursue nuclear weapons.
- There will be no uranium enrichment on Iranian territory.
- Iran must hand its stockpile of some 450 kilograms of uranium enriched to 60 percent to the International Atomic Energy Agency in the near future, in a timetable to be agreed.
- The Natanz, Isfahan, and Fordo nuclear facilities must be dismantled.
- The IAEA, the UN’s nuclear watchdog, must be granted full access, transparency, and oversight inside Iran.
- Iran must abandon its regional proxy “paradigm.”
- Iran must cease the funding, direction, and arming of its regional proxies.
- The Strait of Hormuz must remain open and function as a free maritime corridor.
- Iran’s missile program must be limited in both range and quantity, with specific thresholds to be determined at a later stage.
- Any future use of missiles would be restricted to self-defense.
In return, Iran would benefit as follows:
- Iran would receive a full lifting of sanctions imposed by the international community.
- The US would assist Iran in advancing its civilian nuclear program, including electricity generation at the Bushehr nuclear plant.
- The so-called “snapback” mechanism, which allows for the automatic reimposition of sanctions if Iran fails to comply, would be removed.
In public comments, Iranian officials have dismissed the idea that Trump is genuine about diplomacy and have described his comments as an effort to manipulate global oil prices, a view that was reaffirmed on Tuesday by Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who the US is reportedly seeking to hold talks with that would be led by Vice President JD Vance.
America has created a new Libyan model. Nations like Iran will never sit with the United States again. But I’m not surprised. This was all predictable.
Needless to say, none of this will be happening. In response, Israel claimed that the conclusion of the conflict would be an internal military decision not to be dictated by Washington. In their view, regime change is insufficient. They want Iran to be completely destroyed, like Syria, so it can be balkanised and controlled by Greater Israel. This is the goal, but this is exceptionally unlikely.
Iran has now laid out its own conditions for the end of the conflict:
The six conditions outlined by the Iranian official represent a comprehensive restructuring of the conflict’s political and security framework.
First, Iran demands binding guarantees that war will not be repeated, signaling a rejection of temporary or symbolic ceasefire arrangements.
Second, Tehran calls for the closure of US military bases across the region, a demand that directly challenges the broader American military presence in West Asia.
Third, Iran insists that the aggressors pay compensation for damages inflicted during the war.
Fourth, it calls for an end to all ongoing wars across regional fronts, positioning the current confrontation within a wider regional context rather than an isolated conflict.
Fifth, Tehran seeks the establishment of a new legal regime governing the Strait of Hormuz, a critical global energy artery over which Iran holds strategic influence.
Sixth, the Iranian demand extends into the media sphere, calling for the prosecution and extradition of individuals affiliated with what it describes as hostile media operations targeting Iran.
Taken together, these conditions go far beyond conventional ceasefire terms, reflecting an attempt to redefine not only the outcome of the current war but also the regional order that underpins it.
There is clearly no overlap between positions of the beligerents, meaning that this war is likely to continue for a prolonged period. Iran is vastly better positioned for a long war of attrition. All it has to do is not to lose, whereas the US/Israeli forces need an overwhelming victory. Considering that their air defence capability is virtually exhausted even before Iran begins to use its most advanced weaponry, and boots on the ground can only result in enormous casualties, such a victory is exceptionally unlikely.
