The attempted American blockade suffers from a number of difficulties. Ships cannot get close to the Iran, because their anti-ship missiles have a substantial range. Carriers too close would be sitting ducks. There would be no need to sink them, just to destroy the flight decks in order to render them useless. In order to stay out of range, the blockade must cover a much greater distance, but the US does not have the military hardware to control long distances at sea. There is no armada, and no fleet of helicopters, speedboats and drones, which would be necessary for visual inspection and boarding. Military control is very unlikely to succeed, but confusion and fear of risk amongst shippers is likely to reduce the number of ships passing. China will likely defy the US successfully, but ships from smaller nations with less leverage may not. Iran can export oil by other means, so its export capacity would be reduced but not curtailed completely. The US is also bombing the Chinese-built railroad running through Iran and beyond for this reason. So much for the excuse that the war was about liberating the Iranian people. It’s clearly an attempt to destroy the country completely, in accordance with Israeli wishes, and to halt the rise of Asia in general, and China in particular, by cutting off their energy supply.
Another goal is to prevent the Taiwanese chip company TSMC from being able to manufacture their advanced chips at home, due to shortages of both LNG for fuel and helium, which necessary for chip making. The US is trying to pressure TSMC to relocate to Arizona, so it can control advanced chip manufacture. TSMC has tried to build a facility there, but has suffered many setbacks, and cannot find an appropriate workforce. While the US is busy trying to blockade the Straits of Hormuz externally, China and the Taiwanese opposition party, which favours reunification with the mainland, are holding talks. China may reunify with Taiwan and gain control over the chip fabs before the US can do anything about it. The US has threatened to bomb the fabs if this were to happen, but this doesn’t exactly please the Taiwanese. Bullying and brute force do not win friends, or keep friends. The US is merely demonstrating that it’s a gangster regime.
The so-called peace talks in Islamabad were never intended to be successful. They were about buying time for Trump to find a way out of the quagmire he finds himself in. Unfortunately for him, there is no way out but a humiliating withdrawal, because Iran can withstand a long war of attrition while the US cannot. Iran sent a highly qualified and well-informed team to Islamabad, while the US sent unqualified and ill-informed zionist lackeys and grifters, Kushner and Witkoff, along with JD Vance, who also has no relevant knowledge or experience. The negotiating position of the Iranians was reasonable, but that of the Us/Israeli side was not. They were insisting that Iran abandon its missile defence system, hand over all of their enriched uranium, and agree to share revenue from the Hormuz tollboth system (revenue that would then go to the Trump family and friends). In other words, the US was demanding complete capitulation as a final offer, which was never going to be remotely acceptable. The American team had no authority to agree to anything independently, and were constantly phoning both Trump and Netanyahu for approval. The on the last call with Netanyahu, they were instructed to shut down the talks and walk away. The intransigence was entirely on the US/Israeli side, because while Trump may want a deal, Netanyahu does not. Israel wants nothing less than the complete destruction of Iran.
Trump is already bored of a conflict dragging on far longer than the Israelis has convinced him it would when they talked him into it (no doubt under threat of revealing the kompromat they have on him). He wants nothing more than to declare (false) victory and leave. His regime is composed sycophants, vassals, cronies, manipulative fake pastors (eg Paula White) and technofeudalists waiting to take over when he’s eventually pushed aside, possibly under the 25th amendment. (His recent portrayal of himself as Jesus and fight with the Pope have likely hastened that day.) Vance is a creation of Peter Thiel, whose goal is a global panopticon, with full spectrum surveillance and control of humanity. His ascendancy to the presidency would be a different kind of nightmare.
Trump cares only about the political consequences for himself, and not at all about the looming global catastrophy that his unprovoked war of aggression is causing. His narcissism is all-consuming, and compounded by senility and sadism. The imploding US empire faces strategic defeat and reduction to a regional power, while much of the rest of the world faces immediate energy crisis and famine within months. If this continues for much longer, the global economy will collapse, and the entire planet will blame Trump.
This interview expands on the scale of the consequences of the blockade. Energy, GDP, and population are extremely tightly linked, and global energy supply has already taken a huge hit. This will affect countries differently, depending on local circumstances. Those with sovereignty and self-sufficiency (for instance Russia and Iran) can maintain a viable state. For many less fortunate others it will mean complete collapse into anarchy, with mass death. Structural dependencies are vulnerabilities, and can be catastrophic when input conditions change for the worse.
Many consequences, including a global recession, are already inevitable, and if the war lasts longer than another month, a global depression worse than the 1930s will be guaranteed. When the Suez canal was blocked some time ago, every day of blockage required six days to restore, if that same measure were applied to the blockage of Hormuz, recovery would take until early 2027 if the war stopped tomorrow, and for a 16 week closure it would take until late 2028. These estimates likely understate the case significantly, since the war may go on for much longer, and a great deal of essential infrastructure has been damaged or destroyed. This will take months to years to restore, assuming the conditions for restoring it still exist. Supply chains are to complicated to model accurately, and have little to no resilience under a just-in-time paradigm. Once they fracture, restoring them may not be possible, especially in a low energy and low trust environment.
The WEF globalists will of course use the crisis to force through many of their pet ideas. Among their stated goals are the end of air travel, shipping, and global trade, while constraining human freedom through limited and tightly controlled purchasing power, and forcing people to accept both a nutritionally deficient diet and forced ‘medications’, and population reduction. They may achieve all of that, unless chaos increases to a level where control by anyone becomes impossible, which would derail some of their coercive ideas. Interestingly, Netanyahu has connections with the Davos crowd and the WEF. Perhaps he’s helping them fulfill their goals.
