The Trump regime is high on their own supply. Iran is not Venezuela, where an insider could be pursuaded to betray the leader, meaning a quick in and out operation was possible. Having fallen into a huge geopolitical trap, they are now trying to lie their way out of it in every possible way, but the lying is incoherent. The narrative is constantly shifting in contradictory ways. They can’t even agree on whether or not this is a war, which it clearly is, but they’re trying to paper over the constitutional violation it entailes. Not that they respect the constitution, or the rule of law, at all, but they’re trying to pretend they do. They’re also trying to pretend that what passes for their strategy is working, when it’s been a disastrous failure from the beginning.
The empire looks down on those they’ve dehumanised to such an extent that they constantly underestimate their adversaries in their hubris. Most of what has been destroyed in Iran has been decoys and empty buildings. The people and anything of value in those buildings was removed beforehand. In contrast, US bases in the region have been heavily damaged or destroyed (see the recent photos in the Washington Post). The obliterated radar systems alone cost billions. This has already been a $200 billion war, despite the attempt to proclaim a much lower figure, and the empire has achieved exactly none of its objectives. There is in fact no path for those objectives to be achieved. There never was. The situation is very significantly worse for everyone than when the war began.
The American attempt at a wider blockade of the Iranian blockade has failed, as tankers and cargo ships can simply hug the shoreline, which the US ships cannot approach. The proposal that US warships could guide or escort other vessels through the strait died almost immediately, after arab states, which were not consulted, refused to cooperate. Insurance companies wouldn’t have cooperated either, given that the normal route through the strait is randomly mined, the location of these mines is unknown, and Iran has said it will attack ships attempting to pass through without permission.
The US has nowhere near enough naval assets to mount a blockade, and is also running very low on missiles, which it lacks the surge capacity to produce in quanitity. Besides this lack, missile production also requires rare earths, and China has refused to provide them. The US has threatened to use hypersonic missiles, but it only has eight of them and they’ve never been tested operationally. Each one cost $41 million. In any case, they’re no match for the missiles Iran possesses. This leaves the imperial army as a paper tiger, and once the perception of power dissipates, challenges to that power multiply, and increasingly succeed.
The Trump regime has made a few pathetic attempts to pretend it’s negotiating an end to the war in good faith, but this is merely a facade conducted for domestic propaganda purposes, to paint the Iranian side as disorganised and recalcitrant, while the opposite is true. It’s about buying time while Trump tries to find a way to declare victory and leave without the humiliation of the US being too obvious internationally. This is not likely to be possible, given that Iran holds all the cards. It can easily defend the strait, and its military capapcity remains largely intact. They never depended on a conventional navy or airforce. Their strength is in missiles, drones, fast and manouverable small gunships, manouverable torpedos, submarines, and other equipment of modern warfare. In contrast, the US military is still living in the 1990s. It’s still ordering new aircraft carriers which will be obsolete before completion. The ones they already have are obsolete now. One drone or missile to the flight deck and the carrier is disabled, and the carriers are running out of interceptors to prevent this.
The other reason for buying time is the continuous market manipulation that has been making billions of dollars in insider trading for Trump and his billionaire friends. Trump regularly makes negative statements on Fridays and positive ones on Mondays. His friends play the markets accordingly, often placing bets mere minutes before announcements that move the markets. Given that Congress is also addicted to insider trading, they will do nothing to hold anyone accountable for this.
Iran has now established the Persian Gulf Strait Authority to manage traffic through its new maritime tollbooth. This will be permanent, meaning an end to free passage through the strait. The system will eventually be jointly managed by Iran and Oman, as the strait is part of the territorial waters of both countries. Iran is on the verge of becoming a major power, and it will be looking towards the east. The elected government, previously Atlanticist in orientation, has learned that it would never be treated with respect by western powers, and that those powers are agreement incapable. Trump never stands by agreements he makes, and frequently changes them from day to day, or on a whim. As a result of this war, the US will be driven out of the Gulf permanently.
Because Trump always takes credit for military decisions, he will be the one to take the blame for the consequences, even though this catastrophy actually has many authors. As corrupt, ill-informed, and hubristic as Trump undoubtedly is, the blame should be widely shared. Trump is deliberately being allowed to overreach and make a fool of himself in order to make sure he’s the face of the war. His actions have likely doomed his presidency. Whether the donor class engineers his removal or his poor health finally catches up with him first is anyone’s guess, but in either case he’s unlikely to finish his term, and may be gone before the end of the year. The donor class wants Vance, as he’s the mole planted by the technical industrial complex, which is trying to bring about global technofeudalism. They also want the devastation that this war is causing, because they want people desperate and violent enough that they beg for order, which would be the cue to implment their police state. They may get what they want and leave Trump to take the fall for all of it.
