This topic is highly controversial, with strong opinions on both sides. Two prominent and knowledgeable commentators on the war, Larry Johnson and Pepe Escobar, have been informed by a high level and credible source in Pakistan that Iran possess nuclear weapons and intends to conduct a demonstration in their own country. In some ways this would be no surprise, since it’s become obvious to many countries that possession of nuclear weapons is the only potential deterrent against imperial aggression. However, this is the rational position, and by no means is rationality the only factor in play.
Iran has had a religious injunction – fatwa- against nuclear weapons for many years, because under Shia Islam, it’s forbidden to harm non-combatants, which use of nuclear weapons would obviously do. The caveat to this declaration was that the position could only be reversed if Iran faced an existential threat. The fatwa was proclaimed by the former religious leader who was assassinated with much of his family on the first day of the war. His son (who was wounded in the attack and lost both parents, his wife, and child) now occupies the position, and may have a different view than his father. However, the process of altering a fatwa takes time, and there has been no evidence so far that this is happening. Iran could reasonably argue that it does now face an existential threat. Perhaps they could argue that mere possession of nuclear weapons is sufficient deterrent against aggression. If so, there may be no need to alter the fatwa unless actual use of nuclear weapons is being considered. Unfortunately, mere possession is likely not enough, as Russia has discovered over the last few years.
This is a critical issue, and it is not yet clear where the truth lies. The information from the Pakistani source could be in error, or could be a bluff. If a demonstration occurs, we will know. It would likely be underground, detectable seismically, so no airborne radiological contamination of the region would occur. Unfortunately one possibility is that if a demonstration were to confirm the existence of nuclear weapons, Israel may decide to deploy its own nuclear arsenal preemptively against Iran, likely sparking off a global nuclear conflagration. There have been many online discussions, which will be posted here for anyone who wants to look at the issue from all sides.
