Russia has been very restrained in its approach to the war in Ukraine. It has not responded in kind to the endless provocations undertaken by NATO in its proxy war intended to be fought to the last Ukrainian. As a result, the NATO countries have become increasingly emboldened and have continually escalated. They no longer seem to fear that Russia will ever react, especially beyond Ukraine to its suppliers of weaponry and intelligence. However, Russian patience appears to be wearing out. Last year the was an attack on Puntin’s residence, there have been several high profile assassinations, and this year a deliberate drone attack on a university dorm killed a number of students. Attacks on fuel infrastructure are causing fuel queues, and attacks on bridges around Crimea have isolated the region from supply and support, generating considerable misery. Civilians are killed every day by drone strikes. American and European politicians are openly calling for the strategic defeat and dismemberment of Russia.
The Russian population is now extremely angry, and is increasingly pressuring the leadership to act decisively. Russia has been holding back manpower and capabilities, partly in order to avoid the full scale mobilisation that transitioning from special military operation to all out war would entail, and to avoid taking any more casualties than absolutely necessary. However, this may be about to change. There are powerful calls for Russia to restore deterrence, by taking out the government in Kiev and taking the fight directly to the decision-making centres in Europe. Professor Karaganov used to be a lone voice in this regard, but no longer. He suggests that it may be necessary to use a nuclear weapon against Western Europe, although Russia has plenty of conventional means to show Europe it means business. It has weponry that NATO has no response to, but may still be concerned about what may happen if retaliation for the many attacks against it may trigger Article 5, and bring it into direct (as opposed to the current indirect) conflict with all of NATO.
Russia initially claimed four oblasts – Donetsk, Lugansk, Kherson, and Zaporozhia – in addition to Crimea which had oreviously be annexed after a decisive referendum. Now they alpear to have recognised that preventing further attacks deep into Russia likely requires them to take more territory as a buffer zone. Putin now talks about reclaiming the traditionally Russian territories of Novorossiya, which would include another four oblasts – Kharkov, Nikolaev, Dnipro, and Odessa – with inroads into Sumy as well. Kiev may also be a target. Belarus may become involved at some point as well. Taking Odessa would be particularly important, as this would deprive Ukraine of a port through which to import weapons. As a landlocked rump state, Ukraine would not be a viable political entity. Takin gover Odessa would also allow Russia to connect with the Russian-speaking population of Transdniestria (part of Moldova), which has been under threat.
Progress has been relatively slow thsi past year, largely thanks to the effectiveness of drone warfare. This prevents troops from aggregating in large numbers for an offensive, and makes crossing open territory extremely dangerous. Every movement in the open can be immediately detected, and a drone dispatched to take out personnel. This is a very different kind of warfare, where drone operators are the deadliest component. It isn’t obvious yet how Russia may be intending to ramp up its offensive, given that drones will comtinue to be a major factor. One aspect of recent strategy has been the targeting of gas stations across eastern Ukraine, in order to hamper Ukrainian logistics.
Aggressive rhetoric from Europe combined with Ukrainian proxy forces adorned with Nazi tattoos act as a powerful reminder of WW2 for the Russians, and that was a war that cost them over 20 million people. Europe isn’t actually capable of invading Russia, but constantly threatening to do so anyway is raising the temperature considerably. This is extremely dangerous. Europe is playing with fire, quite likely literally. So is the US, which is flailing around with no strategic vision of what it’s trying to accomplish and how. Trumpian optics seem to be all that matters, but illusion is going to be dispelled by reality in the relatively near future.
