Ted Postol is an expert weapons analyst. Here he’s discussing the abject failure of the Patriot missile defence system, and the development of missile and drone systems that can render all forms of air defence obsolete. Postol analysed the success rate of PAC2 interceptors during the old Gulf war, and found it to be essentially zero. The PAC3 was an upgrade, but very expensive at $4million each, and requiring the participation of some 400 factories. They cannot be produced in large quantities, and definitely not quickly. Two interceptors are fired at an incoming threat, but that threat may be a $20K-$50K drone. The financial disparity is ruinous.
To succeed, the PAC3 must hit an incoming warhead head on, causing the warhead to explode in midair. If it doesn’t hit precisely, the warhead will detatch and continue on to the ground where it will explode. It’s approximately like trying to hit a bullet with another bullet. As it turns out the success rate is approximately 2%, and only against non-hypersonic missiles following an entirely predictable trajectory. Unfortunately for air defence, missile development is preceding rapidly. There are now many hypersonic missiles, and many that are manouverable in flight. There are also missiles that spit out multiple decoys mimicking the actual warhead, making it impossible to intercept the right one.
Patriot systems depend on a single radar, unlike the Russian S-series which use multiple ones, and that radar is very vulnerable, even to simple drones. If the extremely expensive radar is destroyed, the system is useless. This has happened many times in both the Ukraine and Gulf wars, but Patriot systems are still sought after due to the propaganda as to their success rate from the contractors who build them. It is rapidly becoming impossible to defend against missile and drone attacks. Patriot systems are very effective against aircarft, which are much slower, but if they can be taken out by missiles and drones, then there would be no protection against aircraft either. This would create airpower dominance, allowing the much larger explosive devices carried by aircraft to be deployed with impunity. The Russians have used their FAB glide-bombs to great effect in Ukraine. They have everything from FAB250-FAB3000, refering to the weight of the bomb in kilograms. These are capable of massive destruction.
Israel’s Iron Dome is no more effective than the Patriot system, so Israel has suffered a great deal of damage from Iranian and Hezbollah missiles strikes. The damage is concealed and never discussed in the media. Similarly, the American bases in the Gulf have been virtually destroyed. Radars costing up to half a billion dollars were taken out at the beginning of the war, leaving the bases and Israel blind as to incoming threats.
The Russian air defence systems are less vulnerable and more effective, but even these are unlikely to win in the arms race between measures and counter-measures given the speed of missile development and the ubiquitous presence of cheap drones. The future of air defence in general is bleak.
