Saudi Arabia has been blockading Yemen for a decade, following their long war, which the Saudis lost. They’ve been focused on preventing contact between Ansarallah (the Houthis) and Iran, but a Yemeni delegation was recently flown to the funeral of Khamenei on an Iranian plane. (This was necessary since all Yemen’s own aircraft were blown up by the Israelis.) As the plane was returning the delegation to Sanaa airport, the Saudis bombed the runway. The plane diverted to a different airfield and landed safely, but the Saudi action has reignited hostilities between Saudi Arabia and Yemen. Subsequently, Saudi Arabia joined the US in bombing an Iraqi militia group that’s also part of the resistance against the American-Israeli axis. These actions were extremely foolish, as the backlash has been severe. The Iraqis attacked the critical oil facility at Abqaiq, and Ansarallah bombed Saudi ports, oil storage facilities and refineries, all of which were within easy reach. The Jazan refinery is the most advanced facility of its kind in the world, producing petrochamicals as well as fuels. The damage in all cases has been significant, and will take a long time to repair. This can’t even begin while hostilities are ongoing, as they may now be for a long time.
These actions were not at all in the interests of Saudi Arabia, which begs the question as to why they would invite such obviously predictable retaliation. Following the closure of Hormuz, the Saudis had been exporting oil via a pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea. Ansarallah has now closed the southern exit of the Red Sea – the Bab-al-Mandab strait (the Gateway of Tears) – to Saudi shipping. For oil exports to take the Suez route adds considerable time and cost, as much of the oil would be destined for Asia. Ansarallah has now told ships not to dock and load at Saudi ports, which would reduce the kingdom’s export potential to zero. Given that the Saudi economy is not diversified, and is completely dependent on revenues from oil exports, the country could be economically crippled.
The most likely explanation as to why the Saudi crown prince would have taken such actions emerged from an announcement by Trump that he would facilitate the development of nuclear power capacity in the kingdom, with the potential for uranium enrichment, and no inspection regime would be required. This has been a goal of the Saudis for years, and may well have been sufficient inducement for them to put themselves in harms way in the short term. Unfortunately for them, Trump added an additional requirement the next day, namely that they sign the Abraham Accords with Israel. This is a New Yok real estate technique Trump once boasted about in one of his ghost-written books – make a deal, add further huge demands, and intimidate the other side into agreeing to a win-lose deal. It remains to be seen whether this can work in international relations, vut the odds are stacked against it. Signing the accords is something the Saudis have vowed not to do unless a Palestinian state is established. The result may depend on how badly the Saudis want nuclear technology, especially enrichment, which they would be extremely likely to develop into nuclear weapons at their earliest convenience. They may, however, find their infrastructure and economy so damaged over the next few weeks that they no longer have many capacities. A round of nuclear proliferation in the region is now highly likely, as each party will be racing to secure themselves from the empire and their own neighbours.
The war has now encompassed all the Gulf states, with the partial exception of Oman, Jordan, Yemen, Iraq, and potentially Syria. It appears that the US had been planning a major attack on the whole of the resistance groups, but Iran acted pre-emptively by bombing the US base in Jordan from which it would likely have begun, destroying a number of US fighter jets. So far Israel is standing aside, prefering to let the Americans do the dirty work while they avoid becoming a target. However, with the US withdrawing from damaged Gulf bases back to Israel, a concentrated and target-rich environment could be created. Israel is already concerned about the large number of US military refueling planes parked at its main civilian airport. Turkey is also keeping out of the mess so far, although it may eventually be facing off against Israel in occupied Syria.
Meanwhile in the other threatre of war, Ukraine attacked an Iranian ship in the Black Sea. This was most likely an attempt by Zelensky to curry favour with the Americans by being best friends with Israel. This would merge the two wars into one gigantic mess. The idea seems to be on hold for the moment though, as Ukraine has apologised for its ‘mistake’ in targeting the vessel. Presumably they were told to stand down, at least for now. The risk remains high, and the impact of all of this has yet to hit the global economy, but that impact is rapidly approaching.
