The US though a war with Iran would be quick, like their coup in Venezuela (facilitated by bribed insiders). The Israelis who talked them into it assured them that the Iranian regime would fall after a decapitation strike, but this was a lie to get the US to engage with a long-held Israeli priority. No previous president had been foolish enough to go along with this, but Trump has an ego the size of a planet combined with no understanding of the politics of the region, the history, the culture, the religion, the people, the geography, Iran’s preparedness, necessary logistics, or any other relevant factor. Flatter him and he can be talked into anything, especially if flattery can be backed up with the blackmail material from the Epstein files that Israel no doubt possesses.
Trump has never been a strategic thinker, to put it mildly, and the US entered this conflict with nothing at all resembling a plan, or even an idea of what a hypothetical victory might realistically look like. When the initial decapitation strike not only failed, but unified and galvanised Iran like never before, the US simply resorted to a bombing campaign, much of which was against civilian infrastructure – a war crime – because anything of military value was underground and inaccessible. The same cannot be said for the US bases in the region, which were above ground and exposed, and have now been destroyed, with far more casualties than the US is prepared to admit. The physical damage is at least in the hundreds of billions, and possibly more, and the damage to the reputation of the US military is incalculable.
US logistics in the region have been destroyed with these bases, meaning that their largely ineffective blockade of Hormuz cannot be adequately supplied. Provisions, fuel, additional weaponry, and other necessities must come from Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean or from Singapore, and maintenance must be deferred. Deployments have been extended under very difficult circumstances, and military personnel know they’re not there to defend any genuine US interest. The rationale for the war keeps changing, but they know they’re really there to defend Israel, while it attacks all its neighbours and conducts genocide in Gaza, the West Bank, and southern Lebanon. Morale is therefore very low.
The US is now in an escalation trap, with Iran firmly in control of the conflict. Trump is now desperate to walk away and claim victory, but he won’t be allowed to. Iran is baiting the US into expending its remaining precision strike munitions and interceptors, knowing that these are in short supply with no surge capacity to produce more quickly, and that production in any case depends on rare earth elements controlled by China that China is refusing to provide. Almost out of conventional options, the US is now considering the use of tactical nuclear weapons against Pickaxe Mountain, where they think Iran’s enriched uranium might be concealed. Whether or not the material is actually there, this would achieve nothing, since even a nuclear weapon would not penetrate hundreds of metres of granite mountain.
The US may also be contemplating some form of ground incursion, although this would be doomed to fail. The US armed forces are drastically under-manned for such an operation, and have failed to recruit adequately for many years. Interestingly, the Jerusalem Post suggests a mechanism by which recruitment could be greatly enhanced – by offering debt forgiveness in exchange for military service to young Americans drowning in debt, especially those with student loans that cannot be discharged in bankruptcy. This tactic is something I wrote about many years ago as one of the many potential escalating consequences of a debt trap – debtors’ prison, indentured servitude, or being strong-armed into the military.
Iran has decided not to waste further time negotiating with the Trrump regime, as it cannot be trusted to uphold any committments it makes, and has often used negotiations as a front for a surprise attack. It will wait out Trump’s term, knowing that this means the conflict will continue sporadically for a long time, at enormous cost to the global economy and consequently to the global population. The next president will inherit this mess. In the meantime, Iran will be quietly reshaping the balance of power in the region, as it is now a dominant force to be reckoned with. The Gulf states are likely rethinking their allegiances, now that’s it’s obvious the US has neither the desire nor the capacity to protect them. Israel was always the only real entity the US wanted to defend, and they couldn’t even manage that. US bases and arms sales in the region were merely a protection racket to guarantee profits for the US military industrial complex.
In the absence of achievable military options, operation Economic Outcast is treasury secretary Bessent’s plan to isolate Iran economically by imposing secondary sanctions on countries trading with Iran. He’s threatened to cut them off from the dollar system. He doesn’t seem to realise that this would hasten dedollarisation of the global economy in favour of alternstive payment systems, and end up isolating the US instead of Iran. Russia, China, and India will not be respecting these sanctions and cannot be forced to do so. In fact China has made it illegal under Chinese law to comply with American demands. The US has no leverage against Russia, and India will find work arounds to access what it needs. Without compliance by the major players, the plan cannot succeed.
The US has comprehensively failed in Iran, and has been strategically defeated. The consequences of this misadventure will be disastrous for a world deprived of sufficient fuel, fertiliser, and other essential commodities, likely permanently. The Anglo-American empire is ending, and the result will likely be decades of instability as the world reorganises itself.
