The world is at the mercy of an American president in severe cognitive decline, which everyone around him recognises but will not publicly acknowledge. He is incapable of strategic thought, and incapable of admitting or correcting mistakes due to his extreme narcissism. Starting an unwinnable war with Iran has been described by military professionals as the worst geopolitical error in a hundred years, and this error is continually compounded by constant confabulation and rhetorical flip-flopping, sometimes from one hour to the next. Trump is attempting to forge his own reality through power of will, hence his repeated assertions that a deal is close, when it’s obvious that the two sides hold mutually exclusive positions and Iran credibly denies that any talks are even taking place. The US is agreement incapable under what passes for leadership with this regime, which bears striking resemblance to an organised crime network.
Trump has no understanding of diplomacy. As a narcissist, all his deals must be win-lose, and the losing side must be humiliated into the bargain. This is exactly how he operated as a New York real estate developer, when he would refuse to pay people who had worked for him and would drag them through the courts to bankrupt them if they tried to claim what they were owed. In the context of the war, he’s insisting on complete capitulation entirely on his terms or he threatens to bomb the country into the stone age. He has openly stated that “an entire civilisation dies tonight” if Iran did not agree to his terms, and has threatened to use nuclear weapons for the purpose according to White House insiders. This is the behaviour of a mobster, not a president. These severe threats were then followed the next day by a declaration that the Iranian side was now “being reasonable”, so the attack was called off. The mobster is living in a fantasy world of his own making, the main effect, besides confusion, is market manipulation. His friends and family have profited enormously from insider trading on his contradictory statements.
In order to avoid any chance of peace, Israel declared its intention to carpet bomb the Beirut suburb of Dahia, in the full knowledge that this would trigger a proportionate reaction by Iran. Both of these action then transpired. Next an American apache helicopter went down over the Gulf, although both pilots were rescued. It was claimed this was the result of an Iranian attack, but this is highly unlikely since the pilots survived. It’s much more likely that it was an accident due to flying low over water with poor visibility, but it’s being used as an excuse for another round of bullying and destruction.
Initially Trump chose to ignore this, but he was pressured by the warmongers he surrounds himself with, and by Israel, which insists on the complete destruction of Iran and would fatally undermine any attempt at peace. Trump then decided to resume bombing, and also declared that the US would invade Kharg Island to take full control of Iran’s oil industry output. There have been many justifications for the war, beginning with defending protestors to preventing Iran from having a nuclear weapon, but the real reason was always gaining control of the oil. Trump is on the record saying that the US should become the world’s oil baron. He started with Venezuela, and has said that he intends the same for Iran – to collapse the government and install a puppet regime that would allow him full control. His next target will be Cuba, which is in dire straights due to being cut off from Venezuelan oil as collective punishment. He also has his imperial eye on Greenland and Canada, both for reasons of another resource grab.
The US bombed several targets around the strait of Hormuz, including drinking water facilities on Siri Island in the Gulf. Naturally Iran retaliated strongly, and is now in control of the escalation ladder. It has now closed the strait of Hormuz. Trump continuous claims that Iran’s military has been obliterated are obviously false. Iran never had a conventional airforce or navy. What it does have are missiles, drones, underwater drones, manouverable torpedos, armed speed boats, and air defence, all in quantity. None of this capacity has been significantly degraded. It also has the capacity to absob far more punishment than the US could bear. It can easily wait for the US to run out of what remains of its missile arsenal. At some point the US will be forced to admit defeat.
The bombing of the water infrastructure has deprived the civilian population of water at a time if extreme heat, and is another form of collective punishment. The US Department if Defence was renamed the Department of War under Trump, but should really be considered the Department of War Crimes. Yesterday Trump was threatening a more intense bombardment following on from Iran’s retaliation, and today, in yet another policy flip-flop, he’s returned to saying that a deal is close. There have still been no talks, and there will be no deal. Iran is in the driver’s seat, and their terms have not changed throughout the war. They will, together with Oman, retain sovereignty over Hormuz, and transiting ships will be required to obtain permission and pay a fee, similar to the arrangement Turkey has over passage through the Bosphorus. Given that Hormuz lies entirely within the territorial waters of Iran and Oman, this is not unreasonable, and it would provide Iran with an income stream in lieu of reparations for the damage caused by the war.
Trump, who has been selling oil from the US strategic reserve in an attemot to keep the oil price down, appears to be oblivious to the fact that an operational limit is rapidly approaching. Exports from the strategic reserve will be forced to cease in approximately three weeks. At that point the true price if oil will be revealed worldwide as the futures price and the spot price converge at the spot price, which is already $200/barrel in Singapore. A catastrophy is approaching for the global economy, and the US will be badly affected, as it is a importer of the grade of crude from the Gulf that all importers are after, and that its refineries require in order to operate. It can source some of this from Canada, but not yet from Venezuela despite what Trump proclaims. Oil production from Venezuela will take years to be realised due to chronic lack of investment. Chevron is the only oil company involved since other declined, and even it is reconsidering. Russia produces this grade of crude, but Russia’s oil infrastructure is being degraded by the NATO-backed Ukrainians, and its tankers are being partially blockaded in both the Baltic and the Mediterranean.
The net effect for the world will be a major shortage of refined products requring heavy oil as an input, namely diesel, jet fuel, and bunker fuel, all of which are essential for transport. This will cause substantial demand destruction as transport fuel will likely become unaffordable for major importers, poor countries, and ordinary people. Trump will be blamed for this worldwide. We can expect fuel poverty and a new round of lockdowns as a result. Our government may try to cover up the fuel issue with a false justification of a new pandemic, but this will not stand up to scrutiny. The 15 minute city idea is very likely to be revived, as it’s a fuel rationing measure in disguise.
Internationally, a major powershift is underway from the 500 year reign of maritime powers back to Mackinder’s heartland model. Russian foreign minister Sergei Kavrov has proposed an allinace between Russia, China, Iran, and the Gulf states, following the American inability to protect the latter during the war. Pieplines and railroads are being constructed throughout Asia in order to bypass the maritime choke points that the US and its vassal states are attempting to control. The shift of power eastwards is unstopable, and the US finds itself caught in Thucydides Trap, as the declining power trying in vain to prevent the rise of a new power.
Useful detailed discussions from yesterday, prior to the latest TACO:
