The memorandum of understanding with Iran is extremely fragile. It amounts to an American surrender, but domestic pressure in the US is making it impossible for the regime to admit to the terms it recently signed. Trump’s style of deal-making, which may have worked in the New York City real estate world, is to appear to agree initially, but then hit the other side with extreme and unpredictable demands in order to create anxiety and intimidate the other party into making concessions. This does not work at all in the world of international relations. Trump is agreement incapable. He fails to remember what he agreed to and changes his mind constantly. There’s no consistency, no trust and no respect for the interests of the other side.
Trump is now saying that no fees will be paid by ships after the sixty day period of the negotiations. He’s also saying that unfrozen Iranian assets will be used to bail out American farmers, and that Iran has agreed to an IAEA inspection process for all of its nuclear sites. Iran has never agreed to any of that, and none of it is in the MOU. Iran never will agree to it. Nor will it agree to limit its missiles or give up its ability to enrich uranium for the purpose of power generation or the production of medical isotopes. Iran and Oman will be jointly managing Hormuz, with fees, after the 60 days, as it clearly says in the MOU. It lies entirely within their territorial waters, so this is reasonable. Turkey does the same with ships transiting the Bosphorus. Trump says that Hormuz is fully open, but this is untrue. Some ships have passed through, all of which are headed for China, India, and Singapore. It is not open for shipping from hostile nations, and attempts to transit without permission will be met with live fire.
Iran will achieve peak leverage once global reserves have run out, which will likely be the case by the end of August or beginning of September. It is already being recognised in the region as a major power, although the US will never acknowledge this. The US has no viable military option, despite claims that it will take over Hormuz and run it for their own profit. Such claims are delusional. It’s the US that’s in a very poor negotiating position, having already depleted their weaponry in a war against a defensive fortress. Iran can handle a long seige. It can easily out-wait the US. Oil will not flow anything like normally for well into next year, even if the war does end soon. It will take months to clear mines, and no insurance will be available in the meantime. Ships may leave, but few will return to pick up cargoes while there’s a risk of becoming trapped.
Israel is determined to destroy the MOU. They will not accept the continued existence of Lebanon in general and Hezbollah in particular. Both Israel and the US insist that ending hostilities in Lebanon is not part of the MOU, but it clearly is. Israel has already said it will not comply, and it continues to murder civilians. However, the fighting in Lebanon is causing considerable consternation in Israel due to the high number of casualties, and the perception that the war is being fought to bolster Netanyahu’s electoral chances. Netanyahu needs the war to continue in order to win the election and keep himself out of jail, and he wants Trump’s endorsement. He also wants to visit America to oversee the bill that would fully blend the American and Israeli militaries. Trump needs the war to end for electoral reasons. Both men are ruthless and will say anything to get their own way. It remains to be seen who caves. In the meantime, Iran is doing well, and with its prospects steadily improving. If nuclear weapons stay in their silos, Iran will have definitively won. If nuclear weapons are unleashed then all hell will break loose globally, and the result will be everyone loses.
