The strait of Hormuz is partially open, but only for ships prepared to follow the new rules, and not for ships from hostile nations. If Israel continues its muder and destruction spree in the Lebanon, then even this level of passage will stop. Threats from both Israel and the US have not stopped, and threats are antithetical to real negotiations. Israel has said it will continue the slaughter. On the first day at the planned negotiations in Switzerland, Trump threated to assassinate the Iranian negotiation team before they could even leave the country if they didn’t agree to his demands. The Iranian team was about to leave, but the Saudi foreign minister told the Pakistanis not to let them leave, and that Saudi Arabia and Qatar would guarantee the return of the frozen Iranian assets themselves. Israel intended to assassinate the Pakistani mediation team, but was told in no uncertain terms that Israel would be erased from the map if it tried. None of this bodes well for a negotiated settlement.
Trump is panicking because he’s finally realised the situation with the global oil market, and that a global depression is coming, but the realisation has come too late to prevent a major crisis. When he panics he becomes even less able to behave like an adult, much less a leader. No one takes him seriously anymore, and the Iranians consult psychologists used to dealing with the mentally ill before engaging with what he says. The US has about two weeks of reserves left, and the crunch point for a price spike will be no later than the end of August. This will be political poison for Trump right before the midterms. If he loses he will be impeached and likely convicted this time, because the country can see what an utter disaster he’s been.
A fuel crunch can no longer be prevented. It was baked in the cake almost from the beginning of the war, and the time it will take to restore any semblance of normality grows longer the longer the conflict drags on. The war caused a major spike in demand for military jet fuel, but jet fuel is produced at the expense of diesel, so either the military stops flying sorties or trucks stop running at some point. Terms must be agreed and adhered to, but the positions of both sides are far apart. Trump cannot accept the inevitable surrender described in the MOU he signed, either politically or psychologically. Even if an agreement is somehow reached, mines must be cleared, trapped tankers need maintenance, oil cargos must be tested and perhaps blended, and those ships must then head to their destinations at approximately the speed of a bicycle. It will probably take a year, even if the conflict ends tomorrow. Trump needs the war to end immediately. In contrast, Netanyahu needs the conflict to continue for his political survival, and to keep him out of jail. The two malignant narcisists have opposite political imperatives, meaning that a positive way forward is very unlikely.
Iran and Pakistan are behaving like the adults in the room, and both are emerging as significant powers. Various Gulf countries are also acting behind the scenes in an attempt to prevent a catastrophy, as well as to devise a new security architecture for the region. The Saudi foreign minister has invited General Mounir, head of the army in Pakistan and chief mediator, to meet in Riyadh to discuss a military pact and security umbrella based on Pakistan’s nuclear capability. They recognise that American hegemony is coming to an end, and that Israel has over-reached and will collapse without US backing. They also recognise that Iran is now much more powerful than it was before the war, and is now a force to be respected and dealt with accordingly. Pakistan’s profile has also been raised significantly. Pakistan has acted to prevent Israel from assassinating Iranian leaders after the murder of Ali Larijani by hacking their AI targeting system. They have acted as a stabilising force wherever possible.
China is backing the new energing reality behind the scenes, with technical assitance and encouragment. They’re continuing to build out pipelines and railways to bypass maritime chokepoints controlled vy the US, so as to provide greater security of supply for themselves. Supporting stability in the Gulf is a major priority for them. That stability will require the exit of the US, which no longer has functional military bases there, and the subduing of the Israeli violence that has kept the region destabilised for decades. It remains to be seen how this will play out, but the world will be experiencing a form of trial by fire in the meantime.
