Sun Tzu was right, and the US is continuing to double down on the biggest mistake in its history. Nothing about this war has gone the way the empire, in its hubris, expected. It’s been an unmitigated disaster from day one, when they tripple tapped a girls’ school with tomahawks and also martyred Khamenei, which was a fate he had chosen due to the unifying effect it would have on the country. After many failed attempts to destroy Iran’s offensive and defensive capacity, and in the face of a shortage if its own weaponry, the US called a halt, and extended an quasi-ceasefire for weeks. After Trump was informed of the dire consequences for the US and global economies if the strait of Hormuz remained closed for much longer, he decided to sign a Memoramdum of Understanding (MOU) which amounted to an American surrender. The terms reflected Iran’s position almost entirely. However, this caused such a backlash domestically that Trump and his spokespeople have been walking it back ever since, and have now violated it in multiple ways.
The MOU clearly states that all hostilities must permanently cease, and that Lebanon is to be included in the ceasefire. It also states that Iran is to have sanctions lifted and its frozen assets returned, and that Iran is to retain control over the strait of Hormuz. Transits must be with permission, and must follow the route dictated by Iran. While Iran promised not to charge for passage for the 60 day negotiation period, it was clear that fees would be charged after that. The US rapidly repudiated all these condtions that it had signed up to. Israel made it clear that it had no intention of complying with the agreement, and that it would ignore any American demands to do so. It’s been actively undermining the MOU with continued bloodthirsty violence ever since, and may well conduct a false flag operation if it feels the US resolve to take Iran down is wavering. Most recently, Israel signed a new MOU with the puppet government of Lebanon, which already answers to Israel on all matters. The Lebanese government agreed to allow Israel to permanently occupy a large chunk of the country, which it has already depopulated and desecrated, and also to disarm Hezbollah. It is not capable of this, since the Lebanese army is scarcely more than a local police force. The agreement will likely lead to civil war in Lebanon, since it’s opposed by a large percentage of the population, who regard it as a treasonous betrayal of the country.
The original MOU between the US and Iran is now on life support, if not already dead, as the US has violated its terms definitively. Iran fired on ships attempting, with American encouragement, to take an unapproved route through the strait with out permission, as it had warned it would do, and as it was allowed to do under the MOU. The US accused Iran of violating the agreement and bombed Iranian islands in the Gulf. Iran responded by bombing American bases in Kuwait and Bahrain. So far the US has not responded to that, but it may yet do so. However, orders have been given to withdraw men and materiel from the region, so mixed messages are being sent. The US is refusing to allow frozen assets to be returned, but nehind the scenes gulf states have said they may do this themselves. They increasingly realise that Iran is now a very powerful player in the region, and that they will have to learn to coexist. It’s very likely that they will choose not to allow the bombed out US bases on their territory to be rebuilt. In some cases that may not be possible anyway, as Iran will not be allowing American or Israeli ships access to the Gulf in the future.
If the US tries to continue hostilities, or the option of hostilities, the consequences for the global economy will be catastrophic. Iran can close the strait at any time, and can easily outwait the empire, as it’s largely self-sufficient. In contrast, the US strategic reserve is approaching tank bottom, and its ability to manipulate the oil price will shortly come to an end. The price has been held down by a combination of factors – two small pipelines bypassing the Gulf, railway and road transport, price manipulation by speculators in the futures market, and by a substantial cut in Chinese demand for imports. Because the price has been kept lower than circumstances would warrant, there has been little or not demand destruction, as people have been lulled into a false sense of security. There’s no sense of impending crisis among the western populations, although there has been in Asia. The result of this in the west will likely be a sudden onset fuel crisis sometime around the beginning of northern hemisphere autumn, or in other words right before the US midterm elections. China’s drop in demand may be deliberately helping to set up this scenario.
As Chris Martenson points out, the US and others would be forced to triage access to fuel, especially diesel. The military will get first dibs, and it will be demanding aviation fuel, which will have to be produced instead of diesel. Next will be truckers, then farmers, then the public last of all. The odds of the public having access are low. Gasoline would probably last longer than diesel, since the US can make gasoline from its own production of short chain hydrocarbons, but will not be able to make much diesel or aviation fuel or bunker fuel without imports of longer chain hydrocarbons, and it is this class of inputs that is heavily impacted by the closure of the strait. This is the resource in high demand worldwide, all for the same reason. The destruction of Russian energy infrastructure by NATO-backed forces in Ukraine is exaccerbating this problem.
The coming crisis is going to hit complacent western countries that have been used to a relatively high standard of living very hard. It will act to force through a rationing agenda already proposed by the World Economic Forum (WEF) and soundly rejected by the people. With little access to fuel, westerners used to easy transport will find themselves grounded, likely in the 15 minute cities that the WEF has championed. The lack for fuel for farming, combined with a lack of fetiliser from the Gulf and the highly destructive anti-farming policies increasingly in place, will limit the food supply. The WEF policies call for people to be forced to eat insects and fake meat made from extremely unhealthy ingredients, with the food supply under the control of the psychopathic Epstein class. This exploitative group is also pushing an AI-mediated police/surveillance state to deal with the inevitable unrest. This would amount to the ultimste in central planning – or communism with better planning committees as Chris Martenson describes it. WEF policies also encourage unchecked immigration of young men of military age to the west from places that are culturally incompatible, in order to weaken a sense of national identity. This aggravates the deliberate polarisation that has been going on for years, which is intended to disrupt social cohesion to the point where people will not be able to cooperate to challenge what is being inflicted upon them. Klaus Schwab of the WEF said years ago that western values would be tested to the limit, and that is about to happen.
This constellation of policies and events is going to hasten the rise of China at the expense of the west, as the petrodollar is increasingly supplanted by the digital petroyuan, and power shifts eastwards from 500 years of western maritime dominance to control by land-based powers in accordance with Mackinder’s heartland theory. Many western leaders look to China as a model to be copied, but either they fail to recognise the brutal authoritarianism of the CCP or they understand it and want that level of control over their own people. China is the world’s manufacturing hub, but it’s on the verge of economic crisis as its bubble bursts, as well as on the verge of a demographic collapse due to the excesses of the previous one child policy. It’s a very low trust and entirely transactional society, where an increasing percentage of its people are psychologically broken by repression and deprived of both mental health support and any outlet for their greivances. As a result, revenge against society attacks are rapidly increasing. Extreme central control at large scale is a recipe for humanitarian catastrophies. This is where the west is increasingly heading.
People need to overcome their divisions and act to oppose the destructive policies and work together to compensate for the coming lack of energy. That energy deficit will do more than prevent people moving around. It will also cause global supply chains to collapse, meaning that many goods will cease to be available. Pooling resources and sharing infrastructure will be increasingly necessary, albeit difficult psychologically for many. Communities must learn to look after each other, and help each other to resist the imposition of extreme centralisation policies, many of which would have the effect of depopulation, which is also a WEF goal. One bright spot is that energy crisis will likely derail the implementation of AI control strategies, which are extremely energy-intensive, as well as capital-intensive when the global economy as at the end of a major debt cycle. The Epstein class has likely overreached in its hubris, and the consequences they could face as accountability ultimately comes for them could be very unpleasant. The rest of us will then be busy rebuilding from the bottom up.
