The entire region is in flux, with violence spreading and economic catastrophy looming. Trump has backed down yet again from his apocalyptic threats, possibly after having been informed by the US military that there is no path to victory. He has indicated a willingness, likely deceptively as before, to return to negotiations, but the only option is the MOU he previously signed which amounted to an American surrender. He’s caught between a rock and a hard place, because the terms of the MOU are completely unacceptable domestically, but Iran holds all the leverage, so he cannot force any kind of settlement on his terms. He can attempt to maintain his blockade, which is only effective in the sense that it raises perceived risk, and therefore the cost of insurance. The US lacks the naval assets to mount a militarily effective blockade. If the ships it does have get closer to the strait in order to improve the effectiveness, they would be within range of Iranian missiles.
Netanyahu doesn’t intend to let the US abandon the fight, since his political future, and ultimately his liberty, depend on winning the next Israeli election. The Israeli population wants to see Iran completely destroyed, but a large majority believes the war has been lost, so Netanyahu’s chances in the election are looking slim. If he loses, his most likely successors will be even more genocidal, but also therefore even more likely to get their own country obliterated. In his desperation, Netanyahu is threatening that Israel can attack Iran itself, the idea being that such a move would force the US back into the conflict to protect Israel. The odds are that this strategy would work, given the power of the Israeli lobby in the US, and the fact that the US and Israeli militaries and intelligence services are about to formally merge. This is widely regarded as treasonous, for good reason.
In response to the toxic situation in the region, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkey have formed a mutual defence pact, which has been described as a Sunni NATO. In the second video above, Nima Alkhorshid provides maps and detailed analysis of the players and alliances at the sub-nation state level. The pact is problematic, as it compromises Pakistan’s role as a neutral mediator in the war. Saudi Arabia attacked Yemen at the behest of the US, and Yemen has responded by bombing critical Saudi energy infrastructure, futher restricting oil supply from the region. Yemen is an ally of Iran. If Pakistan were to defend Saudi Arabia against Yemen, it would no longer be neutral.
The countries of the region have realised that the US not only cannot protect them, it never had any desire to do so. The bases in their various countries were not for their protection, but to allow the US to project power and to defend Israel. Those bases made these vassal states targets, and they compounded this by allowing the bases to be used in attacks on Iran. They were also complicit in that they funded the war effort. The various Gulf monarchies are artifical constructs of the British empire, and they are corrupt, politically fragile, and physically vulnerable. They share a critical dependency on water desalination, which is also a major Israeli vulnerability. The monarchs rule over restive populations and enjoy little political legitimacy among their people. With the war spreading and critical infrastructure being destroyed or blockaded, it’s possible that the entire region may go up in flames.
The probability that either the US or Israel may resort to using nuclear weapons against Iran is uncomfortably high. Neither party has any conventional path to victory, and neither will go down without taking the rest of the world with them. In Israel this is called the Samson option. The US may well have a version of this as well, especially while Trump is president, since he’s psychologically incapable of admiting defeat due to his extreme narcissism. He cares only about himself, and he must know he’s dying, so why should he care if he takes the whole world down. The American strategy appears to be to wreck the global economy and degrade everyone else, in hope of being the least worst affected by the coming polycrisis that will result from the war. The shortages of energy, fertiliser, and other critical commodities from the Gulf are going to cripple the economy. The damage is already done. This will create a population bottleneck, even if no one resorts to nuclear weapons. Most people have no idea what’s about to happen, so it will come as an abrupt rug-pull. The worst people have been leading the empire into disaster. They represent psychopathy writ large.
