Donald Trump has never been a brave man. He enjoys inflicting pain and suffering, but from a safe distance, or against someone who cannot fight back. His cowardice was on full display on his way back from Ankara. He’d received a message from the Israelis about a potential threat to bring down airforce one, although his own intelligence services had deemed the threat not credible. Trump’s response was to believe the Israelis and arrange to escape from airforce one in a catering container to be taken to a different plane. He took a few people with him, including Hegseth and his personal devotee Natalie Harp, while leaving the rest on airforce one to continue on the journey with no idea the president had jumped ship. Essentially, those left on the original plane were being used as expendable decoys, in case an attack did occur. They included Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, his Chief of Staff Suzy Wiles, immigration policy architect Stephen Miller, press secretary Karoline Leavitt and the entire press pool. These people now know their lives were not considered worth protecting from a threat the Trump took seriously. Karoline Leavitt has already quit as a result. This is dishonourable conduct unbecoming of a commander in chief.
In other news, notable incidents have been escalating on the USS Abraham Lincoln, with several navy personnel having apparently attempted suicide by jumping overboard and finally a serious knife brawl apparently resulting in seven deaths. The ships has been at sea, with no strategic vision to explain to the crew as to their role, for 38 straight weeks, with less and less food available and of worse and worse quality. There is zero privacy onboard, with sleeping quarters open to passageways. The crew has become increasingly aware that they’re being placed in harm’s way not to defend their own country, but at the behest of Israel. Their actions in attempting to blockade the sea outside of the strait of Hormuz are continuing to damage the global economy while achieving nothing of value to anyone. This has to be toxic to morale, and the actions of the crew are an obvious consequence. The ship has been described as “a tinderbox of rage”. The carrier is now being sent back to port to be replaced by the USS George Washington. The bloackade they’re attempting to create is largely ineffective anyway, as the US has far too few naval assets to police it, and those they have cannot get close to the Iranian coast or they would be sunk by Iranian missiles.
The war is expanding in complexity, with Saudi Arabia at the centre, wondering which way to turn. They must recognise by now that hosting US bases on their soil and following American orders has been a disaster. The bases, used to attack Iran, have made the country a target. Their attack on Yemen, with US encouragement, has led to very effective attacks on their vulnerable infrastructure, all of which was in easy range of Ansar Allah (the Houthis) weaponry. They’re controlled by the US through the financial system, since they operate in the dollar sphere, and their sovereign wealth fund lives in the US. They know perfectly well that the US can shut of access to their funds at any time. This is likely the reason for them signing a military pact with both Turkey and Pakistan, both of which have substantial militaries capable of potentially protecting them should American presence in the region disappear, as seems predictable. Saudi Arabia itself has no effective military, even though they have the outward appearance of an army. Their contribution to the pact is likely financial. They could also be attempting to reclaim some assets held in the US by overpaying Turkey and Pakistan for protection in order to launder some funds back to themselves to hold in their own custody.
As a military pact, the proposed alliance remains largely conceptual, without the ability to coordinate actions effectively. They have no unified military doctrine, their units are not interoperable, they wouldn’t yet be able to coordinate logistics, and they don’t share a common language. The pact isn’t supposed to supercede other agreements, but Turkey is a member of NATO, there’s the Gulf Cooperation Council alliance, and the US has financial influence over both Saudi Arabia and Pakistan, having recently dangled an $18 billion stabilisation fund for the Pakistani rupee. Meanwhile Pakistan is attempting to act as a neutral mediator between the US and Iran. Although ostensibly an attack on one is meant to be an attack on all, as with NATO article 5, so far neither Turkey nor Pakistan has attacked Yemen for its damage to Saudi refineries, pipelines, and ports. Neither will they likely help the Saudis against the Iraqi resistance, which may have been responsible for the attack on the critical Abqaiq installation. It remains to be seen if this overtly (Sunni) Muslim alliance, surrounding but not yet incorporating Iran, becomes an effective force in the future.
This is the first war where the US has been soundly beaten, as opposed to getting bored, declaring victory, and simply leaving, as they did in Vietnam and Afghanistan for instance. This has been the result of drastic under-estimation of Iran’s capacilities, both offensive and defensive, and willingness to absorb adversity for the sake of a larger goal. Iran is politically unified as never before, the country is a natural defensive fortress, and its people have had decades to prepare for this war. The days of American military supremacy are over. The empire is no longer capable of fighting a long war, or one against an adversary that can both defend itself and fight back. US presence in the Gulf regions is likely to end, much to the dismay of Israel, which cannot subdue its neighbours alone, and these days cannot do so with American help either. The Israeli state is unlikely to survive in its current form after having destabilised the region for decades and recently starting a seven front war against all its neighbours. The mass formation the country is currently in the grip of will break at some point, then Israelis will have to come to terms with what they’ve done, as did the Germans after WW2.
